Evaluation And Research On The Value Of Wind Power Station In The North Of China

In the recent years,Our country has become the word's largest new energy country under the encourage and support of new energy-related policies of China.The network capacity increased nearly 100 times in the past 10 years.On the other hand,the slowdown and weakness of electricity market situation and the phenomenon of growing wind is not conducive to the healthy development of wind power industry.Compared with traditional energy,wind power and other new energy often be overlooked.So the environmental and social benefit should be underestimated.Therefore,the scientific and rational assessment of the overall value of the wind farm is particularly important.Based on the theory of real option and traditional valuation theory,this paper valued the evaluation of wind farm in the North area of China.First of all,according to the characteristics of wind farms in north area.It includes wind power technology,manufacturing cost,environment policy.It reveals the importance to value the wind farm evaluation.Secondly,this paper analyzes the limitations of the traditional valuation about the wind farm,and carries out the feasibility analysis of the real option model of wind farm.It fully considers the potential value of wind power generation,and applies the real option theory in wind farm value assessment areas.The PEST method is used to classify the external factor s which affect the value of the wind farm and analyzed the actual economic benefits and annual net cash flow of the wind farm.In the aspect of model construction,this paper derives the Black-Scholes option pricing model of wind farm based on the real opt ion theory.Introducing the binomial tree pricing model on the basis of the model.The weights of the two options are weighted as wind farm investment The final option value of the project,combined with the income method to quantify the value of the wind farm,in order to achieve a comprehensive assessment of the value of the wind farm.At last,It calculates the verification of Mountain wind farm in Liaoning province and the sensitivity analysis.The key influencing factor is carried out.This paper validates the correctness of the wind farm value evaluation method and model.It objectively identifies the cost and the expected benefit of the wind farm,and provides the quantitative technical support for the wind power industry investment decision.Based on the above content,this paper combines the real option and the traditional value evaluation method.It establishes the value evaluation model of the wind farm in the north area,objectively identifies the cost and the expected benefit of the wind farm,providing quantitative technical support for the wind powe r industry investment decision.It also gives some ideas to the government and enterprises when they decide to invest wind farms in north area.