Research On Risk Evaluation Of Thermal Power Construction Project Based On Improved Neural Network

In recent years,the rapid development of the national economy,the power industry as its pioneer also maintained a steady and rapid development trend.Thermal power construction projects with investment,long cycle,technical complexity and risk characteristics,is a capital-intensive industries.However,the theory of risk evaluation of thermal power construction projects in China is relatively backward,and there is no systematic and perfect prevention system.In view of the present situation of the thermal power construction project in our country,it is of great significance for the future thermal power construction project to develop the risk management system of the domestic thermal power construction project step by step.In order to achieve the "12th Five-Year Plan" proposed yuan GDP energy consumption,million GDP of carbon dioxide and major pollutants continued to decline,the air quality of two and better than two days the proportion of 80% of the overall planning,Beijing To further optimize the energy structure,improve air quality,building a world-class harmony livable are,in accordance with the "2013-2017 Beijing to accelerate the construction of coal-burning and clean energy construction program" and "Beijing 2013-2017 Clean Air Action Plan key tasks decomposition 2015 work measures " requirements,2015 Beijing pressure reduction coal 4 million tons,coal consumption total reduced to 15000000 tons within,reduction power plant coal 4.5 million tons,in March off stone heat and Guohua coal-fired power plant,in this context,Shijingshan Thermal Power Plant in March 19,2015 4 units all outage,after the Beijing Energy Investment Co.,Ltd.in order to solve the Shijingshan Thermal Power staff diversion problem in Zhuozhou City,Hebei Province,built a new 2 × 350 MW coal-fired units.For Beijing Energy Investment Co.,Ltd.,on the one hand shut down the operating efficiency of Shijingshan better thermal power plant,on the other but also invest nearly 3.6 billion to build 2 × 350 MW unit,it should strengthen the thermal power construction project risk management,Full control of the construction project risks and the extent of its impact,take timely and effective risk prevention measures to improve investment efficiency and ensure the smooth implementation of the project.This paper introduces the development of thermal power project and its main risk sources,and combines the basic principles of risk management with the actual characteristics of thermal power construction project,expatiates the risk sources of thermal power construction project in detail,highlights the thermal power construction project The Importance and Significance of Risk Assessment.In this paper,based on the project risk evaluation and the characteristics of the thermal power construction project,the thermal power construction project risk evaluation index system is established based on the thorough analysis of the thermal power construction project risk factors.Neural network method to forecast the risk of thermal power construction project,and validate the feasibility and practicability of the method through an example.Finally,taking Zhuozhou thermoelectricity construction project as an example,the risk evaluation index system is constructed according to the actual situation of the project.In view of the slow convergence rate and the local optimum of the BP algorithm used in the neural network,The improved neural network method is used to optimize the network topology and initial weight,and it is applied to the risk evaluation of Zhuozhou thermoelectricity construction project,and the convergence effect and error control are achieved.