Research On Electricity-Coal Inventory Optimization Model Considering Steam Coal Futures

Due to the implementation of the electricity-coal merger system,China's electricity-coal management has been fully oriented by market.Fluctuations in coal price lead to the difficulty in cost control for thermal power enterprises and put forward new requirements for the electricity-coal inventory management strategy.Although the electricity-coal inventory of thermal power enterprises can meet the requirement of stable production,excessive inventory will occupy circulating fund and enhance the management cost.At present,thermal power enterprises tend to store steam coal in advance during the peak period in winter and summer in order to prevent the risk of inadequate electricity supply and price fluctuation.This strategy increases the additional storage cost.Also,it cannot guarantee the electricity-coal quality.In 2013,steam coal futures were formally listed in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange,which brought a new electricity-coal access for thermal power enterprises.As a result,thermal power enterprises can provide stable supply of steam coal through the delivery settlement function of steam coal futures.Most existing research on the purchase of steam coal futures focuses on risk hedging and hedging.Less research combines steam coal futures and enterprise inventory.Therefore,it has important theoretical and practical significance to carry out this research.Also,steam coal futures are of great significance for guaranteeing the stable production and cost control of thermal power enterprises.This paper aims to combine steam coal spot and futures and to provide a useful reference for thermal power enterprises to develop dynamic coal inventory strategies.The major study context in this paper includes those: Firstly,this paper utilized the literature method and data access method to review the situation of steam coal futures and electricity-coal inventory at home and abroad.Meantime,the field research method was utilized to understand the inventory strategy of thermal power enterprises during the peak period of coal demand and collect the relevant data.Secondly,the traditional inventory strategy of thermal power enterprises and the delivery settlement strategy of steam coal futures were combined to establish the model through system dynamics method and draw the causality and stock relation schema of the model.Also,the model was conducted with unit test and limiting case test to verify the authenticity and feasibility of the model.On the premise of implementing the electricity-coal inventory mode combining futures and spot goods,analog simulations were carried out according to the actual situation of a thermalpower enterprise,including the comparative simulation of advance coal inventory strategy and futures and spot goods combining strategy,the comparative simulation of different futures purchase quantities,and the comparative simulation of different futures purchase time.The three kinds of comparative simulations indicated that thermal power enterprises could replenish inventory through steam coal futures to reduce the average inventory and save cost.Also,different futures purchase strategies also affected the stock and total cost of the enterprise.Finally,based on the simulation results,this paper put forward suggestions for thermal power enterprises to implement the strategy combining futures and spot goods.In the entire research process,this paper established a inventory management strategy combining steam coal futures and spot goods based on the existing inventory strategy of thermal power enterprises and verified the influence of different futures purchase strategies on stock and cost of enterprises.