The Study On The Effect Of Urban Economic Agglomeration On Export Behavior

The policy of reform and opening as well as the regional equalization strategy widened the gap in economy between the east and west of China,which made more and more enterprises and industries gather together in coastal cities and the eastern coastal cities be highly concentrated.As is indicated,agglomeration can improve the productivity of enterprises and reduce production cost.However,the promotion of the Maritime Silk Route strategy would strengthen the port construction of coastal cities and improve the agglomeration level of coastal cities,so will it still have positive effects on export when the agglomeration exceeds a certain level?The answers of the questions have strong practical significance in the improvement of coastal enterprises' export and urbanization.Therefor,this paper will take Beihai,dalian,Fuzhou,Guangzhou,haikou,lianyungang,nantong,ningbo,qinhuangdao,qingdao,sanya,xiamen,shantou,shanghai,shenzhen,tianjing,wenzhou,yantai,zhanjiang,zhuhai for example to analyze how the economic agglomeration of coastal cities effect exports,so as to verify whether the economic agglomeration has negative effects on export and the critical point of the negative effect.Chapter of this paper are arranged as following:the first chapter is introduction,which mainly explain the research background and significance of this article,research framework and the possible innovations.The second chapter is literature review,which mainly review and summarize the agglomeration and export of relevant theories and the existing literature.The third chapter is theoretical analysis,which mainly illustrates the measures of urban agglomeration economy and the mechanism of economic agglomeration effects on enterprises export.The fourth chapter is the status analysis.According to the city economic agglomeration index and export data,this paper summarizes the current situation of urban agglomeration and export.The fifth chapter is the empirical analysis.In this chapter,we use the random effects Logit model,random effects Tobit model and marginal effect model to analyze the effect of primary and secondary agglomeration index on enterprises export.Chapter six is for the conclusion and policy suggestions.In this paper,we first present the theory related to agglomeration and export including Classical Location Theory,Neoclassical Theory,New Economic Geography and New-New Trade Theory,and also summarize literature related to the formation mechanism of agglomeration and the influencing factors of export,and finally proposed the mechanism of agglomeration effect on export.This paper defines the urban economic agglomeration before the empirical analysis,and also calculate the population agglomeration and economy agglomeration of twenty coastal cities.The result is similar to current situation,and then cities are divided into four categories according to the population agglomeration and economy agglomeration.During the empirical analysis,we set enterprise export tendency and intensity as the dependent variable,the primary and secondary agglomeration index as the key independent variable,the enterprise characteristic index as the control variables,and use the random effect logit model,random effect tobit model and the margins effect model in unbalanced panel pooled by twenty coastal cities microdata from 1999 to 2003 and 2005 to 2007.The result shows that the primary population and economy agglomeration index has positive influence on export and the secondary agglomeration index has negative influence on export,which means the relationship between urban economic agglomeration and export is inverted u-shaped.Marginal effect of the model shows that the population agglomeration and economy agglomeration of first level city including shanghai,guangzhou and shenzhen exceeds the critical value,which may lead to negative effects,and the second,third and fourth level city still remain positive promotion space.