Logistics Enterprise Risk Management Based On Two Kinds Of Pledge Financing Mode

In recent years, the development of supply chain finance service is in full swing, this business form is also in constant innovation, from a certain extent, the supply chain finance service solves the problem of small and medium-sized enterprise financing with difficulty.And the logistics enterprises highly control the information flow, logistics and cash flow, Its role in the supply chain finance business has been outstanding,it occupies the indispensable role in many financing model. But, Logistics enterprises participate in supply chain financial business, it appeared a lot of risk, such as the pledge cash crisis, therefore, it is necessary to stand in the angle of the logistics enterprises, to identify the risk and measure the risk that logistics enterprises faced, provide reference for the logistics enterprise risk management.From the perspective of logistics enterprises , this paper researches two kinds of pledge financing risk with the combination of qualitative and quantitative method. Combined with the operation process of two kinds of pledge financing model, the paper identifies the pledge financing risk, and analyzes the possible risks that the logistics enterprises faced in the trading process, it analyzes each link of the main risk factors, and reflects the risk identification point in detail, it is conducive to grasp risk identification of the third party logistics enterprise,it improves the third party logistics enterprise's practice ability of risk analysis in the supply chain financial services. Then combined with VAR model,which uses the Monte Carlo simulation method of combined with the t distribution and GARCH model,this paper establishes the pledge price change risk measurement model, and makes empirical analysis, which use aluminum price as the sample, this paper carries on the empirical analysis on aluminum's average price. The last through the determination of loan-to-value ratio and VAR limits, carries out decision analysis, and puts forward Suggestions on risk management and control.On the perspective of the third party logistics enterprises, this paper analyzes risk in the process of trading with each enterprise on the supply chain, which is based on two kinds of pledge financing, it has a certain guidance. This paper measures the pledge risk of price change using the Monte Carlo simulation method base on the t distribution and GARCH model, carries throung decision analysis using VAR value and puts forward Suggestions for risk control, it also has a certain practical significance.