The Default Risk Analysis Of Debenture Bonds Under The Rigid Payment Break

Debenture bonds in our country present the characteristics of rigid payment,as the government,banks and other out of risk,but since 2014 the chaori bond break rigid payment,the debenture bonds default frequently in China bond market.The number of debenture bonds defaulted in 2016,which was far more than the sum of 2014 and 2015.The research of debenture bonds default risk in China is particularly important under this background.This article first to define the debenture bonds,introduces the formation of credit risk theories,credit risk measurement and management theory.And then expounded the whole situation of credit bond market,the causes of rigid payment,the reason and affecting factors of default on debenture bonds.Adopt the way of combining qualitative methods and quantitative methods introduce default factors to analyze the default risk on debenture bonds.According to the Wind of debenture bonds database as the research sample and select 303 the available data from 2014 to 2016 as the research sample.According to the influencing factors of default risk on debenture bonds,first analyze principal component,and then use Eviews software take regression analysis for principal component factors,study the default factors of debenture bonds by the empirical method.The analysis results show that the macroscopic economy,debt financial index,the characteristics of the debenture bonds has significant effects on the credit debt default risk.Based on the above empirical results,this paper puts forward the strategies and suggestions coping default risk.Firstly,we should improve the information disclosure mechanism,strengthen the intermediary institutions and regulatory reform.Secondly,we should establish default prevention system and sinking fund system,default event processing system to perfect the debenture bonds default system construction.The third is recommended investors to make risk investment need to be careful.