Research On Indusry Based Simulation Methods Of The Effect Of Policy Implementation

At present, the implementation of the results of these policies has a profound impact on the stability and sustainability of China’s pension system. Thus, researching on the effect of policy implementation and the simulation on implementation of policies is essential. To study the effect of the implementation of the policy with computer simulation is necessary. We should choose the right way to build simulation models, then study of the effect of the implementation of the policy simulation experiments, and research the policy parameters’influence on the pension insurance system. In this thesis we mainly studies these issues to reach the effect of the implementation of the policy in-depth.In his thesis,a multi-agent modeling based simulation method, in order to modeling and simulation the pension insurance policy’ implementation,was proposed.Through analysis of the field of endowment insurance policies,a multi-agent model including the environmental agent, the individual agent, the government regulation agent, co-ordinating accounts agent and personal accounts agent was constructed.Then the timetable of every agents was design.During the period of model building,properties and behavior need to be designed,and the confirm of the policy related parameters is necessary.In order to ensure the reliability and comprehensiveness of the agent property and policy parameters, ideal approach is extracted directly from the policy document. The policy documents are exist in the form of natural language texts, we can not use the computer to operate and read them. There for,before construction of multi-agent model and simulation, an ontology-based approach to formalize policy was used.Then build the concept ontology and rules ontology of endowment insurance policies.The multi-agent model system was implemented with Swarm and Java. And several simulation experiments on a multi-agent system with 5000 individual agents was completed.Experiments using single-variable adjustment method to research the effect parameters in policies on pension replacement rate, individual account balances, overall account balance and other impact indicators. The results show that The model can response the impact of different parameters in pension insurance on evaluation of policy implementation correctly.