| China's securities market since 1990 to restore the past 30 years,has experienced a number of bull bear market changes,the market volatility is very large.The corresponding public offering fund performance fluctuations are particularly significant,mainly because of its choice of stock and the ability to choose the market is poor.Therefore,how to solve the cemetery fund selection of stock and the ability to select the market opportunity is the biggest problem facing it,but the basic literature is not in-depth study of this.This paper builds the stock market bubble model(the ratio of book value to intrinsic value)through the instructor,and summarizes the fluctuation characteristics of the bear market trough stock market through the trend analysis of the relevant indicators.Based on the analysis of the forecast rate and the trend of the listed companies such as the ratio of book value to intrinsic value,the concentration of ownership,the increase and decrease of the industrial capital and financial capital,and the discounted premium of the closed-end fund for the 1125 listed companies in 2005-2016,the data show that: First,the bear market trough points before and after the adjustment of the ratio of book value to intrinsic valueof 1 and a small fluctuation between 1,so the market bubble is low or even almost does not exist.Second,in the four bear market trough point of a high concentration,which changes in industrial capital and market trends,due to industrial capital for the entity business investment,focusing on long-term investment,the volatility is small;financial capital is flexible and volatile,The Third,the overall level of closed-end funds higher,and the smaller the ratio of book value to intrinsic value,the higher the level of discount.The results show that the intrinsic value of the bear market is valid,and the analysis of the relevant indicators based on the ratio of book value to intrinsic value can summarize the fluctuation characteristics of the bear market.Based on the overall market volatility characteristics and analysis methods,the HSH fund's position control,the cumulative yield trend,the weighted fluctuation rate and the holding period are analyzed.The results show that the fund's overall timing ability is weak and the stock selection ability is relatively strong.In view of the weak choice of market opportunities for HSH funds,the choice of stock and the choice of market timing for the overall performance of the overall volatility and other issues,the article proposed institutions and individual investors should be based on financial valuation,through the stock market bubble model and Auxiliary indicator of the trend analysis for effective value investment.Specific analysis on the one hand should strengthen the fund companies and fund managers of the value of investment awareness,through the financial valuation model to identify the value of shares.On the other hand through the ratio of book value to intrinsic value and other indicators of the overall market volatility trend analysis,which according to the overall market volatility and investment value of individual investment decision-making to avoid investors blind investment and herd mentality.The existing research mainly uses the parameter method to test the stock selection and market timing choice of the CBBC fund.Based on the financial valuation model,the paper evaluates the overall intrinsic value of the A-share A shares,and further through the stock market bubble model(The ratio of book value to intrinsic value)and other indicators of the market bubble degree and market trends in the trend analysis,according to the case fund stock selection and market timing to analyze the ability to analyze,so as to guide institutions and individual investors how to choose the stock and market timing... |
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