Research Of Bitcoin Trading Trend Prediction

In 2008 Dorian S.Nakamoto put forward the concept of bitcoin,then the open source software designed by the conceptual was created.Because of the fluidity and low transaction cost of bitcoin,everyone with a certain knowledge and technique can participate in the mining so conveniently that it has been quickly accepted and widespread.It takes seven years for bitcoin to be accepted by most investors.Furthermore,the regional government has begun to pay attention to bitcoin.The United States and the European Union have achieved bitcoin legalization by the end of 2015.With bitcoin government regulation,the market has become more secure and stable,then the Chinese government's attitude towards bitcoin has become soft.Now more and more people start to pay more attention to bitcoin to forge the way on the research on the trend prediction of bitcoin transaction.The content of this paper:I Research on the predictability of bitcoin trading trends.It mainly focused on introducing experiments to prove the trend of bitcoin transactions which can be estimated by historical data and current to estimate the future;II The implementation of the traditional model to the prediction of the bitcoin trend.At present,the research on the prediction of bitcoin is still in the embryonic stage,and the research is very scarce.The mixed model,the multiple regression model,the SVM model and the Bayesian linear regression model are applied to the prediction of bitcoin in this part;III Improve the accuracy of the model by using the Bayesian linear regression model.In the process of the prediction of the bitcoin trend prediction,the prediction accuracy of the Bias model is decreased with the time span of the forecast sample.Therefore,by improving the model of the application,the accuracy can be improved to 74.14%,while the base group is only 53.14%;IV Study of the characteristics of the prediction of the characteristics of bitcoin.In this paper,two other characteristics are found standout in variables:buy order and sell order of bitcoin.