Research On The Stock Valuation Problem Based On The Characteristics Of Fictitious Capital

As a kind of warrant, the stock is the main way to raise funds for the company. Its birth has greatly promoted the development of the economic market. However, with the increase of the frequency of the stock trading activities, the nature of the stock exchange has gradually changed, and some investors regard the stock trading as a kind of speculation or self-interest, which leads to the high stock price. In the short period of time in 2015, the stock market ups and downs, so that the majority of investors once again witnessed the crazy bull market and bear market. The traditional method of stock valuation in this form has not been very good to apply, and the characteristics of the stock as fictitious capital are increasingly apparent. From the characteristics of fictitious capital, the article evaluates the stock for the problems in the current stock market. The main work is as follows:The first part analyzes the characteristics of stock virtual capital. By interpreting Marx’s theory of virtual capital, the basic attribute of virtual capital is found, and the essential characteristics of virtual capital are given. And then analyzes the connection and difference between the virtual capital and the physical capital. It points out that the stock should be separated from the entity capital when it is valued as the virtual capital, so as to provide theoretical support for the further construction of the evaluation system.The second part, based on the characteristics of fictitious capital,combined with the typical problems in the stock market of China’s listed companies such as equity dispute and IPO premium, it is pointed out that the value of stock should cover the value of control and the value of circulation rights in addition to the value of the company. From this point of view, select the book value, asset-liability ratio, the proportion of shareholders holdings, turnover rate, trading volume and other indicators,to build the valuation index system.In the third part, the traditional free cash flow valuation model is used to make empirical research for Vanke A shares and demonstrate the difference between fictitious capital pricing and real capital pricing,which proves that the stock valuation can not be simply measured by company value. The traditional valuation model does not work well for stocks in the Chinese market. Through the statistical pricing model,combined with the selected indicators of the company’s’ index data regression, from the company value, the value of corporate control and the value of the circulation rights, to re-study the stock price to verify the previous assumptions, analyze and forecast the short-term stock price movements, and then compare with the forecast of the ARIMA model to further illustrate the superiority of the model.Finally, through the exposition of the full text, the valuation of the stock in China’s secondary market is summarized.