| In recent years,with the rapid development of China’s economy and the deepening of the openness of financial markets,the reform of the formation mechanism of RMB has been going on.Especially since the 2005 exchange rate reform,along with the speeding up of marketization of RMB exchange rate,opening degree increases gradually,and that elasticity of exchange rate fluctuations space is more and more big,exchange rate exposure of Chinese enterprises also increases gradually.As a big manufacturing country,the internationalization of manufacturing industry plays an important role in China’s economic development.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to pay attention to the fluctuation of exchange rate,especially the change of exchange rate flexibility,and to study the effect of exchange rate exposure.Based on the above background,this paper takes the manufacturing industry as the research object,focuses on the reality of the situation on the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate flexibility,and studies the relationship between the exchange rate volatility and manufacturing exposure,in order to provide theoretical basis for exchange risk management of China’s manufacturing industry.This paper uses the method of combining normative research and empirical research,based on the review of previous research on the views,reviews the related theory of exchange rate exposure,and analyzes the influence mechanism of exchange rate fluctuations on exchange rate exposure.Then according to the changes and characteristics of the floating range of RMB exchange rate,the paper divides 2006 to 2016 into six stages,and based on the reality of China’s manufacturing industry imports and rising net foreign investment,analyzes the realistic relationship between exchange rate fluctuation and exchange rate exposure of China’s manufacturing industry.On the base of analyzing the effect mechanism of exchange rate fluctuations on exchange rate exposure,the paper analyzes the relationship between exchange rate fluctuation strength and manufacturing industry exchange rate exposure in two steps:the first step,using capital market model and ERFI model respectively to measure exchange rate exposure of manufacturing industry and Exchange Rate Volatility in six different stages of the 2006 to 2016,and the relationship between them.The results show that from 2006 to 2012,due to the continuous appreciation of RMB,and China makes great efforts to develop manufacturing industry,exchange rate exposure of most manufacturing enterprises is negative.At the same time,fluctuation of exchangerate is more strong,exchange rate exposure is smaller.After 2012,China’s manufacturing industry has made great progress,exchange rate exposure of most manufacturing enterprises is positive.At the same time,fluctuation of exchange rate is more strong,exchange rate exposure is more significant.The second step,based on the empirical results of the first step,the paper studies the influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on 150 manufacturing enterprises value from 2012 to 2015(choosing from 2012 to 2015 as the study interval is to exclude the impact of financial crisis and the RMB devaluation of RMB after the accession to SDR on the study results).The results show that in the first quarter of2013 and the first quarter of 2014,the exchange rate fluctuations has greatest impact on the value of sample enterprise.And in 2013 third quarter and the third quarter of2015,the exchange rate fluctuations has least impact on the value of sample enterprise.Finally,according to the empirical results and the factors that influence the exchange rate exposure,the paper puts forward some suggestions on how to improve the management of exchange rate exposure. |
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