Research On The Risk About The Medium And Long Term Loans Of Agricultural Development Bank Of China

Since the China Banking Regulatory Commission(CBRC)approved the medium and long term loan business of the Agricultural Development Bank of China(ADBC)in 2007,ADBC's medium and long term loans have made vital contributions to improving the living conditions of rural areas in China,accelerating the urban-rural integration development,and realizing agricultural modernization and the building of new countryside.However,with the expansion of the local governments' fiscal deficit,a slowdown in macroeconomic growth and the excessive growth of loans in some areas in recent years,ADBC faces increasingly great risks in medium and long term loans.Moreover,the ADBC's medium and long term loans generally have long period and large amount.Any risk will inflict a great impact on the local financial system.Therefore,it is necessary to carry out systematic research on ADBC's medium-and long term loans.This thesis adopts a method of combining theoretical analysis and empirical research to study the risk of medium and long term loans of ADBC and then puts forward the suggestions of risk prevention.Based on the current situation,the loan process and risk management methods,this paper makes a theoretical analysis of the risks of ADBC's medium and long term loans,and uses the relevant data of LY City Branch to carry out empirical analysis of risks of ADBC's medium and long term loans.Firstly,this thesis elaborates the theoretical basis of the risk analysis of policy-based medium and long term loans and introduces the function and connotations of policy-based medium and long term loans and the related risk characteristics.It also introduces the identification method of risks of policy-based loans and demonstrates the applicability of Logistic regression model in identification of loan risks.Secondly,this thesis analyzes the realistic characteristics of ADBC's medium and long term loans in terms of loan size,customer structure change and the change of loan term,elaborates the loan process and risk management mode of ADBC,and analyzes the risks of ADBC's medium and long term loans.Thirdly,this thesis analyzes the representativeness of LY City Branch among the national ADBC banks,and introduces the ideas of empirical research and the method of result test.Then,it selects the sample data for analysis and evaluation through principal component analysis and Logistic model.Finally,combined with the above theoretical and empirical analysis,this thesis offers the recommendations for risk prevention and control.First,enhance the bank-government communication to prevent government credit risk;second,optimize the diversification of debt structure to prevent liquidity risk;third,tighten corporate governance to prevent corporate financial risks;fourth,improve internal control management to prevent operational risks.