| with the development of behavioral finance,the functional mechanism that the confidence makes to the macroeconomic fluctuation draws more attention from the economists.This dissertation draws a conclusion according to the analysis on domestic and foreign literatures,and provides theoretical support for the following construction of model,then conducts the Granger test as well as constructs the VAR model,DSGE model,so as to study the relationship between the confidence and the macroeconomic fluctuation,the functional mechanism of the influence,and to what level that the confidence can explain the macroeconomic fluctuation.First of all,according to the result of Granger test,both the entrepreneurs’ confidence and bankers’ confidence can influence the economy significantly,in addition,by means of constructing the VAR model,which involves the bankers’ confidence,entrepreneurs’ confidence,and year-on-year GDP growth rates,to analyze the influence of the entrepreneurs’ confidence on macroeconomic fluctuation,I found that,compared with the bankers’ confidence,the entrepreneurs’ confidence makes more effect on the growth rate of the economy,at the same time,the contribution coming from the bankers’ confidence is non-ignorable as well.The total explanatory power of the two market confidence reached 68% for the variance of macroeconomic fluctuation.Finally,the DSGE model,including the financial accelerator,is built,which is based on the microeconomic theories,in the meantime,the entrepreneurs’ confidence and the bankers’ confidence are introduced into the model,and the bankers’ confidence was introduced into the defining equation of loan rate,while the entrepreneurs’ confidence was introduced into the technological revolution.Consequently,the result of the research denotes that the interest shock and bankers’ confidence shock all have the good explanatory power in terms of the short-term economic fluctuation,but they are less capable of explaining the long-term and mid-term economic fluctuation,on the contrary,the entrepreneurs’ confidence shock is lacking in the capability to explain the short-term economic fluctuation,but it can explain the long-term and mid-term economic fluctuation well.In the long run,the confidence shock can explain the macroeconomic fluctuation to the extent of 64.17%,DSGE model and VAR model are consistent with the results,which can imply that the confidence is able to influence the macroeconomic fluctuation. |
