Implementation And Effect Evaluation Of Dynamic Provision System In China

In recent years,China financial industry in the rapid development of the global economy under the background of rapid development,in the main position in the financial industry in the banking sector is also gradually mature and integrate with the international banking system,at the same time,along with the risks of banking risk management has become increasingly prominent,has become the industry to pay more attention to the problem.Especially after the 2008 financial crisis,the international banking regulators and countries more aware of the risk management and control of the bank,in order to maintain financial stability and stable operation of the macro economy,national regulators require banks to improve the ability of risk management and control,commercial banks must strictly implement the system of loan loss provisions.The loan loss provision system practice in foreign countries for many years,the system development is becoming more and more perfect,China's Ministry of Finance issued the "Interim Provisions on the establishment of national specialized bank loans reserve in 1998,the first clear from the system level requirements of commercial banks from the loan loss reserve,this event marks China's loan loss provision system start form.Loan loss provision system in China in order to adapt to the development of the financial industry and the risks stemming from more stringent control needs the experience of the financial system,financial system and supervision system during collaborative stage,financial system and dynamic regulation of parallel stage in the initial establishment.After the financial crisis,China in 2011 introduced the dynamic provision system,is currently in the stage of development and perfection.The core idea of dynamic provisioning is economically accumulate enough for the loan loss in order to ease the economic downturn to withstand the economic downturn of the default risk of loan,stable economic cycle.The dynamic provision system research of domestic scholars mainly focus on the feasibility of practical experience and reference of foreign models of dynamic provisioning system in our country,the implementation of the system and appropriate research,and the research on the effect of the implementation of the few,the main content of this paper is to examine the effect of the dynamic provisioning system.This paper introduces the basic framework of China's dynamic provisioning system,and from the following two aspects: To investigate the effect of the implementation of an analysis using the related data issued by the CBRC for macro trends.The analysis results show that the dynamic provisioning system can alleviate the original provision of procylicality of the other side,select the 16 listed banks in China 2005-2015 years of panel data,estimated using the generalized method of moments(GMM)method on the empirical analysis,based the analysis results in the verification of macroeconomic trends that the policy effect of dynamic provisioning system in China the strength,and at the same time,the investigation of dynamic provisioning in addition to counter cyclical characteristics other than the effect of the implementation effect.The empirical analysis shows that our initial implementation of dynamic provisioning system have achieved certain results,reflecting its counter cyclical and forward-looking features,but the effect is not obvious.In addition,the empirical analysis concluded that although the results of dynamic provisioning,but there are also commercial banks use the dynamic provisioning for capital manipulation and profit smoothing motivation.Finally,should a modest decline in the provision coverage ratio regulation standard recommendations for dynamic adjustment mechanism to improve the dynamic provisioning system proposed banking supervision departments to increase supervision,the bank balance sheet assets to improve information disclosure system,the establishment of dynamic provisioning for loan losses,improve the regulatory standards as well as the database under the new economic norm.