Research On The Pricing Mechanism Of Natural Gas Market Based On GNEP Under Stochastic Demand

With the rapid development of economy and improvement of people's awareness of environmental protection,the natural gas industry of our country has entered a period of rapid development.The thirteenth Five-Year natural gas development planning proposed that to accelerate the development of natural gas industry in our country is to improve air quality.And it is also an effective way to improve the green low-carbon development.However,with the rapid development of natural gas industry,the structural contradictions have become increasingly prominent.For example,there are less operators of exploration and pipeline transportation;the natural gas transmission is complex and the cost is very high;the mode of pipeline operation is opaque,and it is difficult to achieve fair access to third party operator;end users are difficult to get concessions.Under the background of current market-oriented reform of natural gas,reasonable layout of natural gas network and service facilities,actively promoting the reform of natural gas prices,reducing the pricing of pipeline operators and gradually liberalizing the pricing of production operators and marketers,and realizing the linkage mechanism between natural and alternative energy will be the key points of current researches.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to grasp the behaviors of the operators and the relationship among them in the natural gas market.In view of this,the paper focused the issues of the pricing problem of natural gas in the context of market-oriented reform.And the research is carried out based on the pricing theory,game theory,stochastic demand theory and the theory of equilibrium.Firstly,the supply and demand of natural gas market in our country are analyzed,and it also discussed the operation mechanism of the natural gas industry chain.Secondly,combined with the relevant policies of natural gas market reform in our country,the paper analyzed the behaviors of operators in the natural gas industry chain and constructed the generalized Nash equilibrium model which contains producers,pipeline operators,storage operators,marketers and peak gas operators under government involvement.Meanwhile,considering the influence of random factors on consumer demand for natural gas,the stochastic generalized Nash equilibrium model of natural gas market pricing is constructed based on the above model.Finally,the Monte Carlo method and the smooth Newton method are used to calculate the equilibrium price relationships of natural gas market.Combined with the actual production management of government regulation and pipeline capacity constraints,the paper analyzes the equilibrium prices and the profits of each operator by adjusting the parameters of the model in the natural gas market,and puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions on the rationality and stability of gas pricing under the background of natural gas market reform in our country.Based on the background of the reform of natural gas market in our country,the paper established and solved the stochastic generalized Nash equilibrium model considering the influence of random factors on consumer demand which treated the producers,pipeline operators,storage operators,marketers and peak gas operators as the main operators of economic interests.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The pricing mechanism is not only affected by the pricing of other operators,but also affected by the cost functions of each operator in the natural gas market.Therefore,the government should relax the gas pricing control,and introduce the multiple operators in the natural gas industry chain,which can promote the operators to reduce their costs by market competition,thereby improving the overall social welfare.(2)The increase in government regulation cost will stimulate the development of producers,and enhance consumer demand for natural gas,which can lead to the pricing decline of producers and pipeline operators.Meanwhile,the purchasing price of end users will be reduced accordingly.However,the high cost of government regulation will result in the abuse of gas consumption by end users,and the profits of storage operators and peak gas operators will also decline,which will affect the sustainable and healthy development of the natural gas industry.(3)Pipeline capacity constraints will make the overall decline in the consumption of natural gas market,which lead to pricing improvement of each operator.And the profits of operators will decline.Therefore,the government should strengthen the layout of pipeline network to expand the coverage of natural gas pipeline network.