Research On Valuation Of Vanke Group Based On Residual Income Model

With the rapid development of China's economy,the company's asset restructuring,corporate mergers and acquisitions and other capital operation activities are increasing,the complexity of the business gradually increased,to the interests of corporate stakeholders,how to scientifically and accurately estimate the value of the enterprise is urgent.The present value assessment method provides a solution.Income present value assessment method include dividend discount model,free cash flow discount model,residual income model.Business managers and investors extensively use the free cash flow discount model and the dividend discount model to assess firm value,but there are many flaws.In contrast,the traditional residual income model is used to evaluate the value of real estate enterprises,which makes up the deficiency of the limited use of accounting information.However,there are two major shortcomings: there is no way to elucidate how to use the historical financial data of the enterprise to predict its future residual earnings;it does not solve the long-term earnings forecast due to the infinite expectation.In this paper,we introduce the DuPont analysis system and P / E and P / B multiplier,improve the traditional residual income model,and deduce the new residual income model formula.And then to Vanke Group,for example,the use of improved residual income model for its value assessment.First of all,this paper investigates four parts,including the correlation analysis of the surplus information value of the residual income model,the comparative analysis of the residual income valuation model and other valuation models,and the residual income valuation model for the stock return forecasting ability and the residual income valuation model in the specific enterprise valuation.Secondly,this paper introduces the concept of enterprise value,Alvin Fisher's capital value theory,MM theory and Trade-Off theory.Thirdly,traditional residual income model has practical application flaws.this paper introduces the DuPont analysis system and P / E and P / B multiplier,improves the traditional residual income model,and deduces the new residual income model.This also paves the way for the next case study.Then,this article takes Vanke Group as an example,considering the business environment faced by enterprises and calendar year accounting data,and applying improved residual income model for value assessment.This paper calculates the equity value of the enterprise in 2017 and analyzes the reasons for the difference between the value evaluation result and the stock market price.Finally,based on the study of the case,this paper draws three conclusions.Firstly,by using the improved RIM to calculate the equity value of Vanke in December 31,2016,we found that the equity value is 213,912,126.1 thousand yuan,the calculated result is 12,942,403.9 thousand yuan lower than the actual market value,it illustrated that the price of company shares is higher that its intrinsic value at that time.Secondly,Vanke Group,the intrinsic value of the asset turnover ratio(ATO),equity multiplier(EM),the price earnings ratio(P/E),earnings per share(E)sensitivity is strong,and for the sales revenue(S),sales net interest rate(MOS),the cost of equity capital(R)weak sensitivity.For multi factor sensitivity analysis,Vanke Group equity value can be the most optimistic valuation is 278,998,989.5 thousand yuan,the most pessimistic for 141,274,387.4 thousand yuan;Thirdly,the residual income model can scientifically assess the value of enterprise creation.