Study On The Influencing Factors Of The Rural Commercial Bank Credit Risk

Since June 2003,the State Council promulgated the "Notice on Deepening the Reform of Rural Credit Cooperatives",and put forward the reform plan for rural credit cooperatives,and demanded and encouraged the rural credit cooperatives to change the rural credit cooperatives into joint-stock commercial banks.Among them,Jilin,Shandong,Jiangxi,Zhejiang,Jiangsu,Shanxi,Guizhou,Chongqing and other rural credit cooperatives reform pilot work.In the same year,the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued the "Interim Provisions on the Administration of Rural Commercial Banks" on the rural commercial banks to build,operate and governance system constraints.In 2004,China began to carry out a nationwide deepening of rural credit cooperatives reform,the overall requirements for: the relationship between property rights must be clear,the constraints of the mechanism must be strengthened,the function of financial services must be enhanced,the state to give appropriate support,and specific by the local The government has assumed responsibility,and the local rural credit cooperatives have been transformed into rural commercial banks in different regions.Since then,the rural commercial banks have gradually formed the scale and become an important part of the Chinese financial system.According to the Bank’s 2003-2015 annual report,by the end of 2015,the number of rural commercial banks in China has increased from 13 in 2006 to 859 in 2015,and the proportion of rural cooperative financial institutions has increased from 0.067 in 2006 % Increased to 59.49% by 2015.The scale of assets increased from RMB38.5 billion in 2003 to RMB1,523.42 billion in 2015,and its structure and asset size grew rapidly in 12 years,becoming China’s rural areas an important part of the financial system.However,while the number of rural commercial banks is growing rapidly and the scale of assets is accompanied by a higher non-performing loan balance ratio relative to other types of commercial banks,the rural commercial banks show a relatively high level of credit risk.Rural commercial banks have the attributes of commercial banks,but also bear a certain degree of social responsibility-for agricultural development services,so for its credit risk control is particularly important,and for the control of credit risk credit risk should be identified and in-depth Recognize the factors that affect the level of credit risk.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the credit risk identification and influencing factors of rural commercial banks and to improve the control level of credit risk.The problem of this paper is the identification of credit risk of rural commercial banks and its influencing factors,and the understanding of influencing factors needs to be discussed from both micro and macro.The micro-aspect needs to analyze whether the macroeconomic environment has an impact on the credit risk level of the rural commercial banks.It is necessary to analyze whether the macro-economic environment has an impact on the credit risk level of the rural commercial banks in terms of whether there is a correlation between the bank’s enterprise asset structure,institutional distribution and staffing and its credit risk level.The cognition of these two factors has important theoretical and practical significance to the control of rural commercial bank credit risk.Based on the purpose of the study,this paper first describes the various financial theories and concepts that related to credit risk,and introduces various classic credit risk measurement models.Secondly,the overall development of rural commercial banks And the distribution of the indicators related to credit risk is calculated by selecting the microeconomic and macro data of the rural commercial banks and the regions from 2010 to 2015,and then the statistical analysis of the indicators This paper analyzes the credit risk of the rural commercial banks by using the model of the BS model and the Morton model,establishes the credit risk measurement model,and makes a empirical analysis through the selection of the influencing factors variables from the micro and macro levels The And the macroscopic level is analyzed by using the GAM(Generalized additive model).At the macroscopic level,the short-panel fixed effect model is used for empirical analysis.Based on the empirical results,this paper puts forward the countermeasures to improve the rural commercial bank credit risk Control the level of policy recommendations.The results show that there is a linear relationship between the capital adequacy ratio and the credit risk of the rural commercial banks at the micro level,and there is a nonlinear relationship between the asset yield,the size,the per capita assets and the branch density.In the sample data range,the credit risk and the return on assets are characterized by increasing first,and decrease in end.And the size of the bank is decreasing first and then increasing.The credit risk and the branch density have stable amplitude wave characteristics in different intervals,and the per capita assets There is a linear negative correlation between the credit risk and the agricultural output value at the macro level,and a linear positive correlation with the growth rate of agricultural output value,and the positive correlation between the credit risk and the agricultural output value is Km GDP,fixed investment growth rate was linearly negative correlation,and financial resource density and financial correlation rate was linear positive correlation.On the basis of the conclusion of empirical research and the combination of China’s national conditions,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the credit risk management of rural commercial banks:(1)establish a scientific and reasonable risk assessment mechanism to provide a reliable basis for credit decision-making;(4)to improve the level of agricultural production technology,and to establish the corresponding risk-taking mechanism of agriculture-related loans;(3)to control the level of development of the bank;(5)to optimize the structure of social economy,to promote the healthy and sustainable development of regional economy;(6)to optimize the financing structure,and establish a scientific and rational enterprise rating system and credit system.