The Research Of Enterprise Credit Risk Evaluation Based On Supply Chain Finance

In recent years,supply chain finance has become a brand-new model of commercial bank's credit business,which has great innovation compared with traditional credit business.The supply chain finance not only create a new way to make profit grow for the banking industry's own development in the economic growth which is so weak at present,but also provides a solution which is based on the core enterprise to financing difficulty for the small and medium-sized enterprise upstream and downstream in the chain.Quanzhou,a city in Fujian province,provides fertile soil for commercial banks to carry out supply chain finance business due to its unique advantages,such as Its own developed traditional industries and complete industrial chain.But in the development process of supply chain finance,the biggest risk and obsession is credit risk.Based on this background,this paper focuses on enterprise credit risk in supply chain finance.This paper hope to get specific quantitative evaluation of credit risk in supply chain finance,starting from the leading enterprises at the heart of the supply chain of the three major industries in Quanzhou which is textile and shoes and garment industry,construction and building materials industry,food and beverage industry.Then,we can see big things through small ones.I hope that this paper can help the commercial bank and enterprise itself to make decision of supply chain finance business so that the supply chain finance can services for Quanzhou's real economic development better.In content,this paper analyzes the characters and influencing factors of supply chain finance and credit risk,and different credit risk in different modes are also included at the basis of summarizing relevant literatures.In addition,this paper focuses on the credit risk assessment methods,discussing the advantages and disadvantages of different methods.Moreover,this paper build the credit risk assessment system of the supply chain finance,which contain asset base,future growth,debt repayment,supply operations for the four parts.In methods,this paper selects the Logit model acting as research method for this paper.The fourth chapter uses the financial data to carry out factor analysis.The financial data consists of the 11 Quanzhou enterprises,and 388 listed manufacturing companies from Shanghai and Shenzhen exchange,which are selected according to the principles of similar industry,similar market value and similar p/e ratio.Then,we get the factor scores which become the basis of the establishment of Logit model.The model passes the test of significance and goodness of fit,with 88.3% and 85.7% forecasting accuracy for the experimental and test groups.From the conclusion,the Logit model tell us that the three most influential factors are profit and operating factor,liability and inventory factor,property structure factor.The model is applied to 11 enterprises in Quanzhou,so we get the specific probability of default for each enterprise,from which we can get many information.First,there are nine enterprises whose default probability is below 30%.Second,the overall default probability of nine enterprises of food and beverage industry and textile and shoes and garment industry is low,which shows that the two big industris have good overall environment,and the risk is controllable.The default probability of construction and building materials industry is high,which means that the risk is greater.Third,Industry ranking of default probability is consistent with the ranking of demand elasticity.In general,this paper proves that the credit risk of supply chain finance business in Quanzhou is controllable.So,Quanzhou has great prospects for the development of supply chain finance.In addition,the fifth chapter puts forward some policy suggestions to construct the credit risk evaluation system,perfect regional credit database of small and medium-sized enterprise and complete corresponding supporting measures of credit risk management.