Research On The Influences Of China’s Stock Price From The Perspective Of “Double-heterogeneous Expectations”

As the connection of real and virtual economy,stock market is very important to a country’s development.China’s stock market has been unusual fluctuating for a long time,which can not be explained by traditional financial theory based on the efficient market hypothesis.So it is high time to study the stock price influence factors from the perspective of behavioral finance.In order to discuss the stock price influence factors in behavioral finance,we need to divide all the investors properly.So this paper began with the division and description of the belief-different and attribute-different investors.On one hand,adding fundamental investors to existing feedback-rational investors model creatively,describing their characteristics respectively;On the other hand,after the division based on belief differences,this paper separated investors into individual investors and institutional investors according to their attribute differences,and then elaborated their investing rules in detail.Empirically,we built “rational utility maximizers-positive feedback traders-fundamental traders” 3-parts empirical model intuitively,and used the Fed model and P/E ratio method to measure stock value.With the stock data between 2006-2014,we found the prominent feedback feature and leverage effect beneath the fluctuation of China’s stock price,and reveled the relative rational behavior of institutional investors and the irrational characteristics of individual traders.At last,this paper expanded stock price study to stock market analysis,pointing out that in the long run,our stock market was irrational,and the individual investors’ positive feedback trading was precisely the reason of the irrationality.Based on the final conclusion,we made suggestions in both subjective and objective ways,including market developing,investors educating and legislation improving,in order to promoting the rational development of our stock market.