Resource Enterprise Based On Modified Method Of DCF Valuation

For a long time,resource shortage problem is that we human beings have to face,we have also been active in response to the country's sustainable development strategy,but it is always difficult to find a point to balance the contradiction between infinite demand of limited resources of human.Especially in recent years,under the influence of the international economic crisis,crude oil prices growing in fluctuations,resourceoriented enterprises,especially oil-related business performance emerge a huge gap.In addition,the resource-based enterprises,especially the oil companies is to support the national economy healthy and well development,which is important basic industries for the development of our country,that is to say,its development is closely related to our country's economy and people's lives,which is a measure of our benchmark for future development of the national economy.Therefore,combining the current situation of our country,establishing a set of resource enterprise value evaluation system,whether it is to promote economic prosperity or to promote the development of resource-based companies is have a very vital theoretical significance and practical significance.In this paper,which based on theoretical analysis,using DCF model to evaluate resources enterprise value,and which based on previous research,using proportional methods,trends,case,and charts Etc.methods to estimate the resource enterprise value.First,this article introduces the content and meaning of the research,generalizes the substances of this text,as well as contributions and shortcomings,then discusses the domestic and international literature review.Second,discusses the resource type enterprise features and the choice of the resources Enterprise evaluation model.Then considering the characteristics of resource-based enterprises and enterprise life cycle theory,and making estimates more accurate and scientific,we draw two factors of economic cycles and fluctuations in oil prices into the evaluation model to amendment income and ? parameters.Finally,this article put China oil gas Corporation as case for analysis,describing application process of amendment assessment model.that is,according to history main business income of China oil gas Corporation and proportion relationship of GDP,and the trend of future GDP forecast Enterprise main business income of future year,Then forecasts Enterprise future five years' cash flow.In addition,for oil company,the most risk is fluctuations in the oil price,if you use the CAPM model,the estimated ? values will be very small,which is not an accurate assessment of its value.Therefore,when estimating the discount rate,we should take into oil prices fluctuations considerations,using the arbitrage pricing model(APM)to predict employee discount rate.That is,by setting the income rates and yields on the market as a whole as one of the risk factors and fluctuations in oil prices and other commodity price volatility as other risk factors.You can estimate the risk and cost of oil company better,making its assessed value more accurate and reasonable.The conclusion of this paper indicated that a revised DCF model,that taking economic cycle,oil prices into free cash flow valuation model of resource-based enterprises has strong applicability,and the result is more accurate and reasonable than its valuations using traditional cash flow.Although in assessment practice,influenced by various factors,That we use revised free cash flow model,trend method and proportion method to assess resource enterprise valuation exists limitations,but it make up for the insufficient about the method of value assessment for Chinese resources enterprise.I hope that this paper can provides some thought for Chinese resources enterprise value assessment method in further research.