Detecting Stock Bubbles In Multi-dimensional Perspectives

Now the stock market has become an indispensable component of the financial market.Stock market has played an irreplaceable role in promoting national economic growth and optimizing the allocation of capital.However,stock market not only has investment property,but also has speculative nature.When speculation behaves over investment in the stock market,it will fall into irrational prosperity because of "fanaticism".When the stock bubble burst,investors will suffer from huge losses.Most of the existing literature studies the stock market as a whole,such as the analysis of the stock market index.But portfolio is composed by individuals,investors need to do detailed analysis of stock bubbles in the listed companies to better allocate capital.Compared with the previous one single measurement angle such as early warning index construction point,this compound recognition method can improve the validity of the test,which is useful for capital allocation.Specifically,as for the financial indicators,P/E ratio,cash flow and debt ratio are effective in detecting bubbles of Yunyi;In the aspect of measurement and analysis,the measurement angle is more advanced for the period detection of the bubble.The volatility of stock price is mainly to measure the deviation degree of stock price,which can be used as an assistant tool.These three kinds of recognition methods can complement each other.The study found that stock price volatility can be a more applicable pre-indicator for the conservative investors.And For the risk seeker it is also an effective reference.Sup ADF can dynamically identify the existence of the bubble,which should be an effective method for venture capitalists.Financial indicators acting as lagging indicators,can further confirm the burst of stock price bubbles.