Research On The Impact Of Market Sentiment On Commercial Housing Market Transactions

Since the implementation of monetization reform in housing allocation system in 1998,China's real estate industry has been developed rapidly and closely related to the national economic development.The influence factors of the real estate market operation have been a hot subject of academic research.In addition to macroeconomic fundamentals,population and supply and demand relations and other factors that have been widely discussed,the factors which cause short-term fluctuations in real estate market must include the micro-subject's psychological factors in the real estate market,which still lack of study in domestic academia.Behavioral economics strongly demonstrates the "bounded rationality" of human beings in the market,and points out that human behavior decision-making affects the operation of the market.This theory has been maturely applied in the research of financial field.This paper research the impact of market sentiment on real estate market through the perspective of behavioral economics.Market sentiment refers to the collection that consists of the micro-subject's viewpoints and feelings about the current value and future trend of real estate market,which based on their own perception and dispose of the market information.It reflects most participants' common perception,views,expectations and evaluation and other psychological characteristics related to the status and prospects of real estate market at a certain point in time.Based on the current situation of the development of China 's real estate market,this paper focus on the theme of " the impact of market sentiment on commodity housing market transactions".It's framework and main content are as follows:The first part is theoretical analysis based on commodity housing market supply and demand theory,real estate boom cycle theory and behavioral economics classic theory.On the one hand,we analyzes the theoretical mechanism of market sentiment affecting the operation of commodity housing market,on the one hand,we summarize some actual performance market sentiment affecting the commodity housing market,demonstrated the market sentiment is surely influence on real estate market.In the second part,this paper chooses multiple direct and indirect indicators as the source and agent indicators of the buyer's and the seller's emotion,constructs a comprehensive emotional index as the proxy variable of the market sentiment by using the principal component analysis method,and establishes the VAR model to carry on the empirical analysis.The results show that the comprehensive emotional index constructed in this paper could reflect the housing market sentiment well.The market sentiment has a significant influence on the commodity housing market,which equivalent to the impact of the entire monetary and financial environment on the commodity housing market.Finally,this paper concluded that commodity housing market is not the economic sense of "effective market".First,the market sentiment influences the operation of commodity housing market significantly,and the demand subject's sentiment is more significant than that of the supply subject.What's more,the supply subject's sentiment shows a significant "demand-oriented" feature.Beyond that,commodity housing market and other environmental factors in turn have a significant impact on market sentiment.The characteristics of this paper lie in discussing the microcosmic basis of the real estate market from the perspective of behavioral economics,and studying the emotional variables of the commodity housing market,providing a reference for the follow-up study.