| YouBiKa trading is a kind of cultural property exchange.With the establishment of the cultural property exchange market,transaction of YouBi Ka shifted from the offline to the "Internet+" era.Since its birth in 2013,the online trading has a rapid development.Because of the low cost,high efficiency and safer mode,the online trading patterns has become increasing vast number of investor to accept,and gradually replaced the traditional patterns.As a kind of Art investment,relative to traditional investment,it is scarce,and it has weak liquidity but artistic charm,as a new investment channel,not only attracted a large number of investors,but also gradually exposed the huge risk.Violent fluctuation,price control have become the focus of discussion.This paper will chose H cultural property exchange as the object,and focus on analysis and early warning mechanisms of price bubble of YouBi Ka online trading.This paper includes the following three parts.First of all,this paper will discuss the reason for the formation of asset price bubbles.The reasons include perspective of investors and non-investors.Among them,investors as the market participants are important micro factor which promotes the generation,maintenance and collapse of the bubble.Based on the analysis of the fundamentals of assets and market news,there will be some changes in investors' psychological expectation.Then the changes will affect investors' behaviors,and result in drastic fluctuations in prices.So this paper chooses the investors as the main factor to analyze the formation of the price bubble.The analysis of theory shows that whether investors are rational or irrational,the asset price bubble will be generated.In addition,the factors of non-investors include the particularity assets,the excess liquidity,the imperfect market mechanism,and so on.Secondly,this paper analyzes China's YouBiKa online trading and H's YouBi Ka online trading.Then,this paper chooses the YouBiKa composite index as object.Based on the SADF test and GSADF test,this paper discusses that whether there is a bubble from 30 July 2015 to 30 July 2016.Based on the GSADF test and Monte Carlo simulation,this paper shows that there are three bubbles in this time period.The results show that,there are three bubbles over the study period.First bubble had lasted from September 1,2015 to November 14,2015.Second bubble had lasted from September 9,2015 to December 19,2015.Third bubble had lasted from April 26,2016 to May 30,2015.Overall,the duration of YouBiKa asset price bubbles is not short.Last,this paper talks about the early warning mechanism of price bubbles,which isbased on the improved logistic method and principal component analysis.Based on the above theoretical analysis,this paper chooses the investor sentiment as the object.Based on emotional agent variables,this paper composes emotional component indexes.The Logistic model has calculated the probability of occurrence of bubbles.And the results show that,the component indexes are effective for early warning of the price bubble.In the application of indicators,the investors and the YouBiKa exchange can use them to analyze the market.The probability of occurrence of bubbles can tell us the market risk.And such indices in different plates and collections can effectively prevent the expansion and collapse of bubble.Finally,the Exchange has the obligation to strengthen the education of investors,to safeguard the interests of investors. |
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