Inflation Expectation And Optimal Monetary Policy Choice Under Adaptive Learning

In real life,In addition to the formation of the information exchange between the subject and the main body,the economic subject can also be derived from the specific econometric methods or empirical methods,such as economists.In this process of mutual influence and mutual learning,the central bank's monetary policy is the biggest impact on the economic subject.In order to realize the policy goal,the monetary authorities must take into consideration the formation mechanism of the economic subject and the learning process of the economic subject.Adaptive learning theory,as a new way of expected formation,is widely used in the analysis of macroeconomic research.But at present,both monetary policy theory research and operation practice are carried out under the framework of rational expectation,and the research on monetary policy under the assumption of adaptive learning is relatively insufficient.From this point of view,we studies the formation mechanism of the rational degree,inflation and inflation expectations,and the choice of monetary policy in China.In addition,in view of the domestic is still less based on the theory of inflation,inflation expectations and monetary policy in the study,we also organizes and summarizes systematically on related theories,the inflation expectations and monetary policy analysis of adaptive learning to supplement and perfect.We divide the economy into two parts,the main part of the economy and the main body of the micro economy,once inflation or inflation expectations remain unchanged,the dominant economic entity does not carry out social study;the subject of micro economy not only carries on individual learning to form inflation and inflation expectation,but also is influenced by the leading economic subject to carry on the social study.The simulation study shows that the learning parameters of the dominant economic subject in our country is 0.23,and the sensitivity of the output gap to the interest rate is about-0.18;the learning parameters of the micro economic subjects are 0.21,and the sensitivity of the output gap to the interest rate is between-0.15 and-0.19,Because the micro-economic subject's learning parameter is less than the learning parameter of the dominant economic subject,this shows that the micro-economic subject reduces the influence degree of the error on its own,that is,the micro-economic subject improves the reasonable expectation level under the adaptive learning condition.Generally speaking,the rational expectation of the economic subject in our country is about 80%.From the point of view of monetary policy choice and operation,the implementation of mixed nominal income target monetary policy is superior to other monetary policy,which indicates that we should not only pay attention to inflation but also pay attention to the output gap.Finally,this paper summarizes the corresponding simulation results and puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations.