Forward-looking Monetary Policy And It's Test In China's Monetary Policy

At present,including the United States,Japan,Britain,the euro area and New Zealand and other countries and regions have a forward-looking monetary policy practice.The prospect of proactive monetary policy is practiced in a number of countries because it can improve traditional monetary policy in some respects,such as solving the problem of monetary policy hysteresis and solving low interest rates The lower bounds are effective.After 2012,China's macro economy began to enter the "new normal",the output growth rate from high-speed into the high-speed,facing the industrial structure imbalance,regional economic structural imbalance and income structure imbalance and other structural problems.In addition,we also note that the central bank deposit and lending benchmark interest rates also fell to the historical low after the reform and opening up,the traditional monetary policy effect is limited,so combined with forward-looking monetary policy in foreign practice and China's objective situation,this paper that necessary Forward-looking monetary policy.The first part of the article describes the background of this article,and the relevant research results at home and abroad were sorted out analysis.In the second part of the article,we first outline the forward-looking monetary policy,including the concept of forward-looking monetary policy,the classification of forward-looking monetary policy and the mechanism of forward-looking monetary policy.Then we analyze the theoretical basis of forward-looking monetary policy;The third part of the article on the forward-looking monetary policy rules for the theoretical description;in the fourth part of the forward-looking in the practice of the major developed countries were summarized.The third part of the article first of China's reform and opening up after the monetary policy was sorted out,and then in China to implement the prospect of monetary policy and the feasibility of the feasibility analysis.The fourth part of the article through the construction of a smooth interest rate forward-looking monetary policy response function,theprospective of China's monetary policy conducted empirical tests and found that China's monetary policy does exist on the inflation and output gap forward-looking.In the last part of this chapter,based on the results of empirical test,we will further improve the interest rate control system,raise monetary policy to price change,improve monetary policy transparency and incorporate forward-looking Taylor rule into our monetary policy framework.We have made suggestions for improving our forward-looking monetary policy.