| The outbreak of the US subprime mortgage crisis triggered a global economic crisis,so there were serious damages and shock in the international financial order,system risk was one of the main causes of the crisis.After the outbreak of the crisis,most countries and academic community realized the importance of macro-prudential supervision's improvement and systemic risk's prevention.In recent years,with the rapid development of Chinese real estate industry,this industry has become a pillar industry of Chinese national economy,but some real estate companies,which are the real estate industry important providers,happened events of default.These events prove system default risk prevention is important for real estate companies.Overall,research of real estate companies' system default risk,which is significant for control of the real estate industry risk level and healthy development of the real estate market.In this paper,the period of the study interval is from the first quarter of 2002 to the second quarter of 2016,the use of extended system contingent equity analysis of Chinese 65 listed real estate company system default risk,the first step is based on the undetermined interest analysis of Chinese sample real estate company 15 years of daily default distance,default probability and default loss,in these results,it is found that default probability of these real estate companies shows a decrease trend after an increase trend in the period from 2002 to 2016,in 2008 and 2015 to reach the highest point,it means that the risk of default is higher.According to observe the phenomenon that each real estate company default probability is slight,but there is a rapid rise in the short term;the second step because the real estate industry has financial characteristics,so there is a certain degree of dependency,consider real estate companies.The probability of joint default is the same as that of single real estate company,and the probability of joint default is higher than that of single real estate company.The probability of joint default is higher than that of single real estate company.Three steps will be measured in the expected loss in descending order,you can Recognition of green holdings,silver shares,bright real estate and other ten major real estate companies,these important real estate companies accounted for as much as 90% of the expected loss.With the rapid development of the real estate industry,the real estate market risk appears in recent years,the real estate company default event frequent increase in default risk,after measuring the real estate company joint probability of a greater breach of contract the system default risk is higher.Overall,there will be there preventive measures at the end of this paper: Firstly,the Real Estate Company financing structure should be standardize,and the risk of default should be decreased;secondly,improvement in the supervision of real estate finance,prevention of default risk system;thirdly,the establishment of Real Estate Company system default risk warning mechanism and an important institution identification system. |
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