| Exchange rate markets extreme volatility in 2016,pound,euro,the dollar,the yuan and other major currencies is a sharp fluctuations,the related nations and international trade suffer a significant effect.As is known to all,exchange rate changes not only the balance of economic basic situation,such as payments,economic growth,relative interest rates,relative inflation influence,but also the influence of the central bank intervention,expectations,and many other factors.The central bank market communication for its low cost and high efficiency become more and more prevalent,and is widely used in practice.This paper draw lessons from the achievements of domestic and foreign scholars to the central bank exchange rate market communication,collection the central bank exchange rate market communication data in July 2005 to November 2016,apply the event study to investigate the bank foreign exchange market communication effectiveness.The results show:overall,both oral communication and written communication are not effective influence exchange rates;Specific view,The effect of the central bank oral communication behavior on the exchange rate is small and short-term,that is,verbal intervention short-term have a stable effect on the exchange rate and long time to see not effectively reduce the exchange rate volatility;Although the overall effect of written communication is not as good as verbal communication,the impact on the exchange rate should be greater than verbal communication,and written communication is more suitable to short-term reverse the market trend rather than amplification.This conclusion in the nonparametric sign test,paired sample t test,and expand the window period is still stable after testing.For this kind of situation.This paper suggests that the central bank should use more oral communication when it needs to stabilize the exchange rate in the short term,and more written communication to enhance the effect to reverse the trend of exchange rate. |
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