Study On The Sales Forecast And Application Of Heavy And Medium Trucks Based On Gompertz Model And Ridge Regression Model

The medium and heavy truck market of China is currently stay at a relatively stable development period.With the changes of economic development situation,the commercial vehicle market is facing the situation of opportunities coexist with challenges.Automobile companies are very concerned about the future market size and structure,but also concerned about the future trend of product.The accurate forecasting of market demand and market trend can not only play an important role in the research of R & D,marketing strategy,production planning and so on,but also provide great value on the analysis of the internal and external factors and the adjustment of product strategy.Firstly,the thesis finds out the developing trend and impact factors(such as macroeconomic and policy impact)of the whole commercial vehicle market and the medium and heavy truck market based on data analysis of the historical performance.Secondly,via the construction of forecasting index system to confirm five main impact factors of commercial vehicle market,including GDP,total retail sales of social consumer goods,total investment in fixed assets,coal demand and steel production.Thirdly,the Gompertz model and the ridge regression model are introduced,and the historical data analysis is carried out to ensure the scientific rationality of the model and improve the accuracy of the forecast.Then the model is used to forecast the market maintenance of the medium and heavy truck market.Finally,using authoritative data resources to analyze developing trend of those five impact factors of the market and make a scientific and reasonable prediction of the developing trend of the market and the vehicle types,then come up with the predicted sales volume in the next ten years by entering the impact factors value into the model.Meanwhile,the thesis hopes to provide suggestions for automotive companies on making decisions of marketing strategy by scientific prediction of market structure trend of the market and end up with two application cases of commercial vehicle manufacturers.The research results of this thesis are mainly based on the analysis of the data of the industry authority.At the same time,the Gompertz model is used to illustrate the accuracy of the market forecast,while there are many scholars using the Ridge regression model on market forecasting.The thesis can help to understand the historical development of the medium and heavy truck market,and come up with the predicted market trend of the future medium and heavy truck market based on historical rules.While provide data support and references for automotive companies on marketing decisions.