Research On Financial Crisis Early Warning About Peer To Peer Lending Platforms Based On Logistic Regression

In recent years,with rapid development,the China’s Peer to Peer platforms are gathering huge capital,lack of supervision,enterprises frequently runaway and bankrupt situation which have led to highly attention of the government supervision department.Since 2016,a variety of polices have been issued,the China’s Peer to Peer platforms have ushered in a big rectification and reshuffle.At present,Most Peer to Peer platforms have not yet fully met regulatory requirements,The industry’s net profit and profitability are not optimistic,risk further exposure,the Peer to Peer industry system risk has been considered as one of the important system risks in the internet financial sector.Early prediction of financial risk,to speed up research and establish a Peer to Peer platform financial crisis early warning system,to achieve effective supervision of Peer to Peer platform,has become an important issue for government supervision department,and platform manager.In this paper,the financial crisis early warning theory is used to integrate the financial indicators of the Peer to Peer platform and the non-financial indicators related to the operation status of the platform into the financial crisis early warning index system.The logistic regression analysis method is used to construct the empirical model of the financial crisis early warning of a Peer to Peer platform in China and the validity of the model is tested.Empirical study show that the outbreak of the financial crisis of Peer to Peer platforms is not only related to the financial indicators that reflect the financial status of the platform,but also to the pricing mechanism of the platform,but also to the non-financial indicators such as the governance effectiveness of the platform and the protection of investors’ rights and interests.Specifically,the indicators related to the platform financial crisis include platform background,operation time,average reference rate of return,registered capital,net inflow of funds,ways of guarantee,term of borrowing and The borrowing ratio of the top 10 borrowers.At the same time,this paper also puts forward corresponding Suggestions on how to prevent the financial crisis of a Peer to Peer platform from government regulation and platform management.