Study On The Relevance Between Money And Investment On CPI Index Based On Time Series

As the rapid development of people’s pace of life and advance of science and technology,A large amount of data have been produced in all walks of life.And a series of economic data have been produced with the development of global economy,which change over time and grow exponentially.These economic time series contains information that is of great importance to the economy development of our country.So it is now a focus of study to mining real useful and valuable information from these data.In this paper,the research status and progress of this field are introduced from two angles: data mining of time series and econometrics.In the view of data mining,the similarity measure and search of time series are involved,and vector autoregression model is related in the part of econometrics,along with the research progress of improved regression model based on it.Inflation has now turned into a regular and global phenomena instead of a regional economic phenomena as the rapid development of global economy.On account that the change rate of CPI reflects the extent of inflation or deflation in a way,the current researches are mainly focused on some Macroeconomic variables to study the relation with inflation and the influence on it,which includes gross domestic product(GDP),Producer Price Index(PPI),broad monetary aggregates(M2)and total investment in fixed assets(INV).In this paper,the influence factors and the change tendency of inflation are researched from the angle of relevance of time series economic data.Take CPI index,broad monetary aggregates(M2)and total investment in fixed assets(INV)for example,we can discuss the change progress in terms of the long-term equilibrium and short-term undulation of time series based on the correlation analysis of these three factors.In the part of long-term equilibrium,traditional ADF unit root test and Johansen co-integrating test are applied to verify the three time series;and in the part of short-term fluctuation,an algorithm is designed combined with Dynamic Time Warping and least square method to discuss the changing progress towards long-term equilibrium of three time series.