Research On The Investment Decision Of The Poor Mountainous Area Based On Real Option

Poverty-stricken mountain industry is the economic lifeline of poor mountainous areas,it can promote the development of poor mountain economy,improve the income of poor mountain people.Poverty-stricken areas industrial investment activities are a dynamic systematic process in which the associated variables are complex and volatile,the risks and uncertainties go through the investment process throughout the project,both in the stage of development and in the development stage,especially in poor mountain areas.To ensure the healthy,stable and sustainable development of poor mountainous areas,it is necessary to make scientific and rational decision-making on the investment in poor mountainous industry projects.Based on the real option theory,this paper mainly analyzes the optimal investment decision-making theory under the condition of uncertainty of price and cost under the physical theory and the mixed investment decision-making strategy of industrial entry and exit under the condition of uncertainty.And then apply the two-part theory to the investment decision-making of the poor mountainous industry according to the actual development of the poor mountainous industry and the characteristics of the poor mountain industry.Constructing the theoretical model of industrial investment decision-making in poor mountainous areas and defining the parameters in the model,combined with the actual development of the poverty-stricken mountainous areas in China,the parameters in the theoretical model are specific to the poverty-stricken mountain industry projects.Finally,the concrete theoretical model and its conclusion are applied to the example of the specialty selenium-enriched rice industry in Gutang township,Lianyuan city,Hunan province,and the theoretical model of the real option of selenium-rich rice in Gutang town is constructed.Based on the data recorded by the field poverty alleviation,the segregated rice industry project investment will get specific analysis.The necessity and scientific application of the real option theory in the industrial investment decision-making of poor mountainous areas can be verified by examples.According to the research process and the results of the summary,and for the conclusions drawn from the relevant policy recommendations,the study of the shortcomings of the study and make future research prospects.