The Analysis Of Credit Loans-Based On The Sunshine Personal Guarantee Insurance Credit Loan Case

"Shadow bank" had been developed fast because it was founded outside the banking regulatory system.However,it was also the reason why it was regulated by the broad credit policy.It allows us to reconsider how bank financial institutions can more effectively expand their business within the limits of law,enhance their own development space and properly address the problem of residents' difficulties in personal loans.In order to provide some modest reference to other organizations in this industry field,this paper will take "The Sunshine Personal Guarantee Insurance Credit Loan" as an example,which was launched by the Bank of East Asia and the Sunshine Property Insurance Company.The paper will use it to analyze the general situation and specific operation process of those kind of credit loans.It can also extract the unique advantages of this credit loans case and give a view to this kind of financial institutions.The idea is to provide a new approach and a new model for banks and financial organizations.On the basis of the overall analysis of "The Sunshine Personal Guarantee Insurance Credit Loan",this paper analyzes its role and influence in the whole credit system.The results of the Bank of East Asia lending data show that the ARIMA model is more suitable for the current credit model of the banking sector than the Auto-Regressive model and the GARCH model,and this model can Short-term forecast the amount of credit loans and provide a basis reference to help banks work out short-term deposit and loan plans.The credit default risk for such loans in the credit market is still within the scope of the bank's control,so that the small micro-enterprise and the individual's loan data can be combined with the actual situation to find the successful experience of the Bank of East Asia to provide a feasibility reference case to other credit markets.This loan case makes these financial institutions to determine the risk of credit default and possible consequences in advance.If find they can not bear those risk,they can use the "bank + insurance company" lending method to minimize the risk and the loss.Banks can use this model to control therisk within a reasonable range,which is significance to the long-term development of financial institutions.