Research On Factors Affecting Chinese Fuel Oil Future Prices

The futures market is an important component of the financial market,so as in China.In the background of world futures development track,Chinese future market has gone into orbit after 2000.With the marketization of fuel oil prices in China,the oil futures market in China has been successfully restarted after rectification.Now the future market starts to enhance the spot market prices.However,for lacking of integrity,Chinese fuel oil future market is still guided by international oil future markets and many other factors.At the same time,with the development of the future market,future prices impact the spot prices,and the future market plays an increasingly important role in the capital flow.Chines future market is not only the choice of world financial trend,but also a pivotal factor of the financial real economy.Chinese fuel oil futures market price was chosen as the research object.Based on previous research results and the price theories,this paper establishes the influencing factors,analyzing their influence paths and results through the qualitative analysis.On the basis,macro economy index,price level,dollar exchange rate,international oil future market prices,trading volume and other factors are chosen as the main influencing factors.Then this paper uses empirical analysis method to establish a model and validate those selected factors.Considering the data representation and availability,this paper forms fuel oil futures price influence factor groups and establishes the error correction model and regress model of principal components.Through the analysis and comparison of the two model conclusions,the influence effects of various factors were quantifiedOn the basis of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis,the price level has obvious influence on Chinese fuel oil futures market prices;at the same time,changes in the price of international oil futures market and the macro economy will directly affect the fuel oil futures prices.Compare to the macro factors,the market factors have stronger impact on Chinese fuel oil prices.The results of the study also draw some policy suggestions on the development of Chinese fuel oil futures market.