The Study Of Chinese Financial Markets Influence In The Movement Of Global Commodity Price

Commodity has been closely watched due to its unique product and financial attributes,commodity supply and demand as well as price attract widespread attention.In the recent rounds of price fluctuations,the emerging economic entities and financial markets played an increasingly important role,commodity financialization trend has increased.As one of the emerging economic entities,China is the world second largest economic entity,and maintains higher economic growth rate than most of the other countries,investors in the commodity market pay more and more attentions to Chinese financial market.With Chinese stock market crashed in2015,the Shanghai Composite Index tumbled,the RMB exchange rate collapsed,global commodity price also showed a sharp decline phenomenon.In this context,this paper studies the Chinese financial market information transmission to global commodity as well as the influence direction and degree,it is helpful to understand the correlation of financial markets and commodity markets deeply,to deepen the understanding of the factors that affect the commodity market swings,but also has an important reference significance to the actual investment operation on the commodity market.In order to analyze Chinese financial market's influence on commodities prices,this paper used Chinese stock market and the RMB NDF market to represent Chinese financial market,and used American dollar index,DJI as the control variables,dividing the time into two stages on the basis of 2008 financial crisis.We used the GARCH model to analyze integral influence;rolling regression for fluctuate trend;SVAR model for dynamic feedback and shock influence.The results showed that:the impact of American financial market on global commodity prices is higher than Chinese financial market;comparing to the Chinese stock market,the impact of the RMB NDF market enjoys a more apparent influence on commodity market;the impact of financial market on commodity is stage featured and commodity featured.Metal product is more affected than the agricultural product,as for metal commodities,regarding to agricultural products,soybeans,soybean oil,palm oil,are most affected,sugar,cotton,wheat,rice are least.Some suggestions are put forward according to the conclusions.For investors,it is necessary to pay close attention to the changes of Chinese financial market to judge and forecast the price fluctuation in the global commodity market.For the Chinese government,because of the insufficient pricing ability in commodity market,Chinaneed not only influence global commodity movements through the actual demand factors,but also need to further improve pricing ability by the financial market.Which including: promote the RMB pricing in commodity market,improve the influence of the RMB exchange rate through marked price currency effect;under the premise of ensuring the security of the financial system and feasible conditions,carry out the commodity future index,at the same time,open up the domestic futures market,expand the participation of international investors,improve the global market benchmark position of Chinese commodity futures.