The Research On Influencing Factors Of Of Open-ended Leverage Funds' Redemption Risk

With the arrival of the bull market in early 2014,the fund market got very hot.Open-ended leverage funds with high leveraged income and high flexibility received investors' unprecedented attention.The leverage funds' total volume in the 2014 was increased by 183.45%than in the end of 2013.However,In June 2015,the outbreak of the crash made funds' leverage become the "sword",funds' net value were in freefall.Many funds had suffered under the crisis.Market sentiment dropped to freezing point.Large-scale funds' redemptions happened frequently.Regulators and scholars began to pay close attention to the leverage funds' redemption risk.researches of influencing factors had became an important direction.In this paper,the methods of quantitative and qualitative analysis,theoretical and empirical analysis are used to analyze influencing factors and pathes of open-ended leverage funds' redemption risk.Then,the author put forward policy suggestions of reducing open-ended leverage funds'redemption risk.Based on the summary of domestic and foreign studies of influencing factors of funds' redemption risk,this paper expounds the connotation of the open-ended leverage fund and the redemption risk.Then,the paper analyzes causes of open-ended leverage funds' redemption risk from the perspective of Externality and behavioral finance.Meanwhile,This paper analyzes the path of the open-ended leverage funds'redemption risk based on the freedom redemption system and the matching conversion system.On the basis of' theoretical analysis,selecting 46 open-ended leverage funds'data in the first quarter of 2014 to the second quarter of 2015 for empirical testing,the conclusions as follow:Firstly,the investors' sentiment is the important factor that affecting the open-ended leverage funds' redemption risk,which not only has a significant negative influence on it directly,but also has a indirect negative impact by influencing the rates of discount or premium of enterprising shares rate.Secondly,the current scale of open-ended leverage funds is greater,the redemption risk is lower.But the too large previous size of funds will improve the redemption risk.Thirdly,there is a non-significant negative correlation between the open-ended leverage funds'redemption risk and funds' current performance,a non-significant positive correlation between the open-ended leverage funds' redemption risk and funds' previous performance,due to the Sheep-Flock Effect and disposal effect in Chinese investors.Finally.combining theoretical and empirical analysis.the paper puts forward policy suggestions of reducing open-ended leverage funds' redemption risk from improving the market activity of open-ended leverage funds.strengthening the investors'education and deepening the reform of the open-ended leverage funds'trading mechanism.