Strategical Location For China's OFDI To The "Belt And Road" Area

In the context of the weakly recovery of the world economy,major developed countries'unilateralism prevails,the trend of anti-globalization and trade protectionism have been arisen rapidly,and consider the current situation of our country that overcapacity of industry and low export level,it is of great significance to rationalize the layout of outward foreign direct investment(OFDI).Due to the differences exist in the"Belt and Road" countries,such as economic development,resource endowment,market potential and openness and so on,China's OFDI location layout and industry selection to this area have been imbalanced for a long period of time,which do harm to the realization of the strategic objective that China and the "Belt and Road" countries together with common development.Therefore,explore the spatial layout essence,mechanism and influence factors of China's OFDI are of great theoretical and practical significance for carry out China's OFDI development strategy.This paper uses 55 countries of the "Belt and Road" as the research object,by using spatial econometric methods,and starting with the influence factors,such as the host country natural resources endowment,market potential,openness,economic development level and exchange rate,bilateral distance and trade scale,to study the question of China's strategic layout of OFDI to the "Belt and Road" countries.First of all,in order to form OFDI spatial correlation analysis framework,the paper improves the existing OFDI basic analysis framework by adding spatial correlation factor,in order to form OFDI spatial correlation analysis framework.Since then,the paper combined with OFDI current status,analyses the formation mechanism,major determination factors of China's OFDI location distribution to the "Belt and Road" countries,revealing the formation of the spatial agglomeration effect,spillover effect and spatial crowding out effect,finding out the general law on the formation of investment space layout effect.then put forward the corresponding countermeasures about China's OFDI location layout.From the aspect of the theoretical analysis,this paper analyzes the formation mechanism of the spatial agglomeration effect,spillover effect and the third-country effect by using the idea of spatial econometrics,new economic geography.Due to the diversification of consumer preferences,the enterprises which produce the heterogeneous product will choose the countries which with specific consumer groups for OFDI,and carry out the production and business activities,these kinds of economic activities not only provide a variety of products for the consumer,but also increase the average wage of labor which due to increased factor demand of the country.Furthermore,the increase of labor wage will lead to the migration of labor from all around the world,which also contributed to the expansion of the country's market size,resulting in more demand for products,and eventually formed a space agglomeration area.Once the host countries'limited market cannot meet the goal that OFDI pursuit of economies scale,the investors will choose the neighboring countries of the host country for OFDI,which has the similar market environment,culture and economic development and so on.Because of the profit driven nature of OFDI,the optimization of investment environment in the third country will lead to investors start to devote their OFDI to the third country rather than the host country,that is,a third-country market squeeze out China's OFDI to the host country.From the aspect of the empirical analysis,this paper applies spatial maximum likelihood estimation method and GMM robustness tests to carry out an empir:ical test on spatial effect of China's OFDI to the "Belt and Road",which reach the main conclusions of this part:First of all,the space location of China's OFDI to the "Belt and Road" has been overwhelmingly unbalanced for a long period,there existed a positive spatial agglomeration and the spillover effect but a negative third country effect.How to give full play to the agglomeration and spillover of OFDI and avoid the negative influence of third countries is the key to improve the OFDI level in China.Second,OFDI enterprises more likely to take the host country's per capita GDP as an important factor into considerations.China enterprises should select countries with higher GDP per capita to carry out OFDI activities.Third,due to the host country's investment environment is the direct factor that influences China's OFDI,Chinese enterprises' OFDI layout should focus on the "Belt and Road" alongside countries which owns powerful economic strength,so as to form a spatial accumulation point,through spillover effect to improve the scale of China' OFDI to the universe of the "Belt and Road".Fourth,China's OFDI to the "Belt and Road" has "one motivation and one orientation" feature,that is,it has resource seeking motivation and export-oriented characteristic.The main innovation of this paper is:first,introduce spatial economics analysis methods,improve analysis framework of OFDI space location layout,so that correlation analysis can be more comprehensive and close to the actual spatial distribution pattern of OFDI,thus ensure the analysis conclusion more convincing and have actual guiding meaning.According to the improved analysis framework,introduce the spatial correlation analysis in the empirical model can enhance the relevance of empirical conclusions and reality status.Second,previous related research only focus on a certain aspect of the reality of OFDI's spatial effect,take the matter on its merits,never considering the comprehensive influence of spatial agglomeration,spillover effect and third country effect on spatial distribution,however,no matter take the OFDI layout reality as consideration,or according to theory and empirical analysis,they all have clearly pointed out that the three kinds of spatial effect are played a crucial role in the form of space layout,if only consider one,the conclusions are more likely to hold a part as the whole,the paper makes up for the shortcoming.Third,the paper proposed the strategic thinking and the corresponding countermeasures that the location choice of China's OFDI to the" Belt and Road "countries should locate in spatial agglomeration area,through the spatial spillover effect,finally make the investment point extend to plane,realize the whole cooperation of China and" Belt and Road "countries.