The Impact Of Economic Structure On Regional Economic Resilience In The Face Of Common Shocks

With the deepening of economic integration,the number of economic shocks in our country is increasing day by day.After the world financial crisis in 2008,China's economic growth began to slow down from 2010,down to 6.9%in 2015,still maintained at about 6.7%.In response to the financial crisis,China issued a"four trillion" proactive fiscal policy to stimulate economic growth.However,in the face of this national policy shock,China's different provinces also have different performance.Specifically,in the dual role of the international common shocks and domestic common shocks,especially in recent years,China's Shanghai region's economic growth rate is relatively stable,but the northeast economic growth rate decreased greatly,even zero growth situation.The reason for this is related to regional economic resilience.Therefore,the economic growth rate fluctuation of different provinces in the face of common shocks,as well as the regional economic elasticity with the provinces as the basic unit,has become the focus of this study.Economic resilience refers to the ability of participation,preparation,response and repair of regional economies in the face of external disturbances or shocks.Concretely speaking,the regional economic resilience is based on the provinces of our country as the basic unit,in the face of domestic and foreign economic shocks,the economic growth rate change range.When the common shocks come,if the province's economic growth rate changes greatly,then the local economic resilience is weak,and the absorption adjustment of the impact is poor.On the contrary,when the common shocks come,if the province's economic growth rate changes little.it shows that the absorption and adjustment of the local economic shocks are stronger.and the economic resilience is better.Through empirical research,we find that industrial structure,income gap between urban and rural areas,the degree of non nationalization and the ratio of investment and consumption have a significant impact on the local economic resilience.Based on this,this paper comes to the conclusion that the regional economic resilience exists in China's provinces.and puts forward some corresponding policy suggestions.The basic framework of the paper is as follows:The first part is an introduction.This paper first introduces the different responses to economic shocks caused by different regional economic structure,and then causes the difference of economic development level from the two aspects of international and domestic.On this basis,through the introduction of resilience,further clarify the research problems and significance of the research,and introduces the research methods,innovation and shortcomings.The second part is literature review.This paper reviews the current research status of regional economic elasticity at home and abroad,summarizes and summarizes the existing viewpoints,models adopted,structural indexes used and research conclusions,and points out the advantages and disadvantages of this paper.The third part is the extraction of common shocks.First,the extraction methods of the common shocks are summarized.Then,the vector autoregressive model and the dummy variable model are selected to extract the joint impact according to the research objectives.On the one hand,using vector autoregressive(VAR)model,by excluding the price factor after the gross national product(GDP),consumer price index(CPI),broad money supply(M2)and the short-term interest rate(R)extraction vector of four variables of the regression model of common shocks.On the other hand,the panel data is used to extract the joint impact.The economic growth rate of each province is taken as the regression variable,and the provinces and time are set as dummy variables and time dummy variables,and the common shocks are extracted.The fourth part is the empirical part,which is mainly composed of three parts.Firstly,the economic structure of provinces is quantitatively analyzed by using the proportion index,and the specific structure,data sources and statistical description of economic structure indexes are introduced.Then,the rate of economic growth of provinces as the regression variables,the extracted common shocks,economic structure,economic structure and common shocks and cross terms using panel data for the variables in the fixed effect regression model,the composition of the provinces of the economic structure is not the same,in the face of common shocks,GDP(GDP the rate of increase)varied in different extent,then obtains the existence of economic resilience of different.Finally,by means of economic structure index for the common shocks to the economic growth rate dropped by 1%,then the common shocks to the economic structure,the maximum and minimum range of common shocks facing the economic growth rate is calculated,for specific performance of the resilience of the economy.The fifth part is the conclusion.It is found that under the influence of common shocks,the economic structure with better economic resilience will face less economic output fluctuation when facing economic shocks.Similarly,the economic structure with relatively poor economic resilience will face more economic output fluctuations in the face of shocks.Therefore,China's economic structure should be developed into a more flexible economic structure.In order to achieve this goal,this paper puts forward some policy recommendations,specifically,it can be divided into two aspects:the establishment of index monitoring system to measure the economic structure of the country and the provinces,and take policy reform and adjustment to improve the regional economic resilience of the provinces.