Study On Early Warning System Of Overseas Mergers And Acquisitions Of Resource-based Enterprises In China

The flows of international capital and cross-border cooperation between enterprises are increasing with rapid development of globalization.What's more,cross-border M&A have grown rapidly.Since 1990s,the size of enterprises and international cooperation has never decreased,multinational enterprises are also increasing.On the background of less financing expense and more corporate interests,the future of global M&A are estimated to go further in accordance with the world investment report come out by the United Nations Conference on Trade and development during recent years,the amount of global cross-border M&A up to$973.1 million in 1987,and it achieved $11000 million in 2012,about 10.3 times increased.China's cross-border M&A also had a considerable growth,in the last ten years,the number of cross-border M&A attained to $3066,cumulative mergers and acquisitions be revealed $66650 million.With the execution of the latest policies,laws and regulations,the expectation of M&A wave will be brighter.With the continuous and rapid development of industrialization and urbanization in China,the demand of various energy resources are expected to hold a substantial number.According to the "2030 World Energy Outlook" published by BP,China and India would be the first and the third largest economy and energy consumption economics untill 2030,the demand of population,GDP and energy are estimated to take up 35%of the whole world.China's one-time energy consumption was amounted to 2.735 billion in 2012,and in 2014 it was up to 38.9 million tons,augmented about 42.23%.During the same period,China's GDP was grown e19.17%.In future,the insufficient energy supply would restrict the growth of China's economy.China's energy resources is relatively inadequate,but energy production capacity is oversupply.Latin America and other economics are abundant in energy storage relatively,however,since the weakness of investment and technology,the production capacity is restrained.Both the complementary nature of the industrial development and the difference of energy resources would accelerate the cooperation between Chinese companies and foreign enterprises.With the implementation of the "going out" strategy,China's resource-based overseas investment has continued to increase.Statistics released by Ministry of Commerce show that the amount of China's overseas energy investment increased by nearly 18 times from 2000 to 2013.By the end of 2013,one fifth of China's overseas investment capital has gone to resource-based industries.However,development brings risks as well.Resource-based enterprises overseas mergers and acquisition are usually faced with many uncertain factors,such as the downstream industry demand fluctuations,the host country policy changes,the sensitivity of the international political change,they will affect the enterprise M&A price will affect the success of mergers and acquisitions.It is precisely because of the various risk factors,China's resource-based enterprises need to carry out more accurate quantification,evaluation and evasion in the launch of overseas mergers and acquisitions.In recent years,resource-based enterprise's overseas M&A failures in our country can be found everywhere,in 2005,China national offshore oil company due to the interference of the national level was not completed acquisition,in 2009 Chinalco abort the merger and acquisition of Rio tinto group,and in 2011 the Shenhua group buy Mongolia coalfield is also facing the great pressure.Therefore,the research on overseas M&A risk early warning of resource-based enterprises has high theoretical value and practical significance.The full Paper is divided into five parts.The first part is the introduction,which introduces the background,significance,innovation and deficiencies of the research,and builds the research frame.The second part introduces the theoretical basis of this paper and summarizes the relevant results of domestic and overseas.The basic theory of overseas M&A,the basic theory of comprehensive evaluation and the basic meaning of risk early warning are elaborated in the theoretical basis,which helps to understand the relevant content of the post.In the literature review,the paper concludes the innovation and necessity of this research by reviewing the research results of domestic and overseas.The third part respectively from the political,economic environment and the resources endowment,respectively introduces the resource-based enterprise overseas M&A risk mechanism,and on this basis,construct the index system of risk evaluation.The fourth part is the empirical study of the paper,by taking 20 countries as samples,and taking the risk index,we did the comprehensive evaluation and quantification of the merger risk in various countries.On this basis,combining with BP artificial neural network to build out our resource-based enterprises overseas M&A risk early warning model,from the Angle of vertical time sequence,this paper compares and analyzes the sample countries M&A risk comprehensive comparison between 2006 and 2015.The warning output indicates the risk level of the country's M&A in 2016 compared with 2006 to 2015.Although the risk factors that the resource-based enterprises overseas mergers and acquisitions in China are more complex,the risk environment is more fluid,more risk warning conclusion may not be exactly the same as that of reality,but the research conclusion and research methods to our resource-based enterprises overseas mergers and acquisitions play a reference role.The last part is the policy recommendations,in combination with the results in this paper,the early warning from the economic environment,political law,resources endowment risk prevention advice is put forward,this paper puts forward the beneficial reference that aims at resource-based enterprises overseas mergers and acquisitions in the process of risk early warning in time and to make policies.