Analysis And Comparison Of Anti-Risk Capability Of International Metal Futures From The Bubble Perspective

With the continuous development of the international market economy,the futures market has gradually become an important part of the financial market,and its contribution to the overall financial market is increasing day by day.The international financial integration has made the price discovery function of the financial market extremely useful.At the same time,it has also played a significant role in hedging.However,the risk of financial market fluctuations cannot be overlooked.On the one hand,random fluctuations in the asset prices of the financial markets,especially those caused by sudden rises and falls,are most likely due to the risk of bursting the financial bubble;on the other hand,in the increasingly complex international financial environment,especially in the financial markets.The risk of bubbles makes it difficult for some financial products to maintain price stability.The fierce fluctuations in financial market prices have caused great uncertainties in the prices of international metal futures markets.We systematically studied the volatility characteristics of a type of financial derivatives such as international metal futures that have a relatively high level of risk,and combined them with empirical analysis of their risk resistance.Capabilities and their improvement policies can guide the risk prevention of financial products.At present,the non-ferrous metals future goods concentrated mainly in the London Metal Exchange,the New York Mercantile Exchange and the Tokyo Industrial Exchange.In particular,the trading prices of the London Metal Exchange futures contracts are widely recognized around the world as the pricing standards for non-ferrous metal trading.Therefore,this article selects LEM lead futures,LEM tin futures,LEM aluminum futures and LEM zinc futures in London metal futures as the study.The object is representativeness.International metal futures itself is a high-risk financial derivative,and today's international metal futures market trading volume is 28 times that of 15 years ago.We cannot ignored the impact of international metal futures on the international financial market,while study whether it has the risk and resistance to the bubble.Risk capability is of great significance to maintaining the stable development of the international financial market.Based on the theory of anti-risk ability,this paper draws on the fractal theory and chaos theory as the main ideas of this paper.It intends to study the anti-risk ability and its improvement strategy of international metal futures from the perspective of bubbles.First of all,based on the price fluctuations of international metal futures,we can initially determine the probability of its existence and the possibility of having anti-risk capabilities.The specific method is to first grasp the trend of price fluctuations of the four research objects.The overall analysis method is divided into two steps.The first step is to compare and analyze the comprehensive risk levels of the four research subjects.The second step is to conduct data processing on the four research objects,take their price index and conduct comparative analysis,and study and analyze four object degree of bubble risk in this article.Then,using the LPPL model,in-depth comparative study of the risk resistance of international metal futures in different periods is conducted in relation to the following issues:(1)whether metal futures have a risk of bubbles during the international financial crisis period and the normal period;(2)whether international metal futures are resistant Risk capability;(3)Under different periods,metal futures have strong anti-risk ability.Finally,based on the study of the above issues,combining the characteristics of international metal futures that have the ability to resist risks in different periods,we propose policies to improve the risk resistance of financial products from the macro level and the micro level,which are proposed for securities regulatory agencies,futures exchanges,and Investors made suggestions.From the perspective of bubbles,this article intends to conduct a comparative study on the anti-risk capabilities of international metal futures.Due to the fractal characteristics of financial markets,this paper uses the LPPL model to compare four research subjects and has a certain theoretical significance: First,the LPPL model as a research The measurement and analysis tools for financial products' anti-risk ability have very important positive significance for improving the accuracy of the measurement of the bubble and the analysis of the anti-risk ability of the later article.Secondly,it helps the investors,the enterprise and the government to understand better by analyzing the form of the bubble.The performance of financial products in risk resistance in different financial risk levels further improves the traditional financial market theory.At the same time,the research object chosen in this paper is the international metal futures with high leverage effect,which has certain practical significance: First,it has certain reference significance for the stability and development of international finance and economy.Studying the risk resistance of the international metal futures market under the influence of the bubble risk is an important issue in the process of financial globalization and integration.This issue even affects the balance of the entire world economy and society.Second,it is positive to promote the gradual and steady opening of China's financial market.The ability of the index fund market to resist risks is an academic frontier issue in the current economic and financial fields.It is good for the regulators of China to learn the characteristics of international metal futures by studying the anti-risk capabilities of international metal futures.At the same time,we may see a more opening domestic futures market of China in the future.