Study On China Local Government Debt Risk Warning Model

Since the reform and opening up,the local government bears most economic functions and massive infrastructure construction with the development of economy and society in our country.Those government also provided more and more investment on the development of economy and infrastructure.After the reform of tax-sharing system,they had to integrate more funds to complete the work in that limited right of property and facing of the growth stress of GDP.Local governments' appropriate borrowing not only can relief the short or medium and long term problem of financial difficulty of local government which occurred in process of their economic development,but play a positive role on local economic development.However,if ignoring local status and bearing huge debt,local governments would assume more debt interests,which would increase relevant pressure on local economic development and generate huge debt risks.The purpose of this paper is that an early warning system which can analyzed objective data could be built through using various research and analysis so that the level of risk management of local governments' debt can be further improved and the occurrence of regional financial risks could be on safeguard.This paper collected various literature,and summarized the research result and idea in related filed,and based on that,a more scientific target system which can early alert debt risks of local government could be established.A collection of fuzzy appraisal evaluation was constructed by use of the combination of step analysis and fuzzy analysis.An early warning system of local government debt risk is completed by means of the form of expert scoring,fuzzy evaluation of single early-warning index and local government debt risk.Summarizing and carding debt data of one local government in accordance with corresponding early warning indicators,through the verification of early warning system,the degree of risk evaluation with high reliability was gained.