Construction And Research Of Tax Revenue Forecasting Method In Hunan Province

Tax revenue forecasting is the scientific management work which based on past and present tax data,to fully grasp tax history data and the factors that affect changes in tax revenue,to make a tax forecasting and Qualitative judgment through mathematical statistics and other means.Time series analysis method belongs to the field of econometric method,which can be used as the main tool of forecasting and analyzing work.It is divided into two types:time series analysis and stochastic time series analysis.There are many types of time series analysis in China,including moving average method,exponential smoothing method and time series decomposition.The stochastic time series analysis method is the autoregressive moving average model(ARMA)and cointegration model.In this paper,GDP value is related at different moments,and the random influence value ?t is dependent on the time t,so the stochastic time series forecasting method is used to forecast the tax revenue.The cointegration model is a method proposed by Engle and Granger in 1987 to deal with the long-term equilibrium relationship between non-stationary time series.The cointegration concept is a method used to estimate the long-term equilibrium relationship between the whole variables,and also a statistical description of the sequence satisfying a certain equilibrium relation.Some economic variables are nonstationary time series,but their linear combinations are likely to be stationary sequences.These stationary linear combinations are called cointegration equations,which can be interpreted as long-term stable equilibrium relationships between variables.This paper has established the error correction model(ECM)of total tax revenue in Hunan Province,so as to establish a suitable tax revenue forecasting model by using cointegration theory and ECM model.On the whole,the model has good prediction accuracy.This paper has used the methods of measurement modeling,trend analysis,qualitative analysis to analyze and forecast the main characteristics of the main taxes by way of taxation.By studying the relationship between the internal structure and the economic factors of the local fiscal revenue system,this paper has constructed the tax revenue forecasting and analysis method of Hunan province elementarily.