Analysis Of The Characteristics Of The Turning Point Of International Crude Oil Prices And The Dominant Factors

In recent fifteen years,the market share of crude oil has gradually decreases,but as the most important fuel in the world,the crude oil is of dual attributes,strategic and financial.The analysis on fluctuation in crude oil price has become a global research hotspot,especially the change point of drastic fluctuation in oil price which affects the nerve of every aspect.Analysis of the impact of changes in crude oil prices not only on the production and investment decision-making enterprises play a very important role,but also on national energy security and economic development,energy saving and emission reduction also has a particularly important significance.Meanwhile,with the changing of influence factors and the intensity of its action,the effect of speculative factors is strengthened,the effect of influence factors is gradually obvious.This change will play an important role in the analysis and prediction of oil prices,and it will be useful for the correct interaction analysis of influence factors.The accurate analysis of the operating conditions of crude oil prices and the effect of the influencing factors on the formation of crude oil prices and the impact of the effect of analysis has great practical significance and theoretical significance.Based on this idea,we focus on the change point and the core influence factors of international crude oil price.Firstly,we explored the analysis of the change point of international crude oil price and predicted the next change point with statistical inference.Secondly,a deeply study and analyzes of the influence factors of crude oil price system were constructed.The main conclusions and innovations of the paper are as follows:(1)In section 2,an exploratory research direction is introduced in this paper.Monthly international crude oil prices were taken as the study objective and the power-law distribution was introduced to an analysis of crude oil price change point.The Poisson distribution,power-law distribution,and logarithmic-normal distribution were used as prior distributions based on the Bayes' ideas to conform to the catastrophes description,and then corresponding probability distribution functions for simulation and analyses of the monthly crude oil price change point trends were constructed.First,based on the two thoughts of basic statistical cognition and PPM model,the historical catastrophes of crude oil price were defined,identified,and analyzed.During the analysis and identification of change point by applying PPM model thought,the PPM-KM integration model was establish to measure,cluster,and identify the posterior probability of change points of international crude oil price.Second,the appearance probabilities of the crude oil price change points in the two definitions and the three distribution models under different time intervals were calculated and compared.Finally,we predicted the appearance probability of the next crude oil price change point through a comparative analysis.The results showed that there were 37 significant oil price catastrophes during 1986-2015.In different time point,the unbalance of market supply-demand structure,the sudden geopolitical event,the US dollar index,and the global economic development situation have become the main reasons for oil price catastrophes.The results for the probability density value indicated that at different time intervals,the power-law distribution probability value was greater than that of the exponential distribution and the logarithmic-normal distribution,showing that there was a high probability for intensive intermittent events and inactive sporadic events.This information was used to investigate whether the monthly international crude oil price change point complied with the power-law distribution hypothesis.However,due to the relatively small amount of data,the results of the hypothesis testing were not very stable,so the power-law distribution model needs further demonstration and testing.(2)In Section 3,we analyzed the core influence factors of international crude oil price by VAR model firstly.Secondly,introduce the loss function when establishing BVAR model in order to explain the asymmetric effect.Therefore,combine the merits of the loss function and BVAR model,and compare difference in loss when the regression coefficient is too high or too low under normal-Wishart prior distribution.The results show that the marginal effect of the dollar index on oil price is much greater than the marginal effect of China's net imports.Due to the impact of speculation,the impact of the dollar index on crude oil price is higher than crude oil supply and demand fundamentals.Contribution rate of crude oil itself is the largest,about 85%.The contribution rate of the OPEC crude oil production(crude oil supply)on the crude oil price is small,it has been an upward trend during the first four period,and began to stabilize in the fifth period,keep at around 0.08%.The contribution rate of the OECD oil consumption is relatively large,and has been on the rise,remained at around 11%.The contribution rate of OECD oil stocks on crude oil prices increased from the first period,reached the maximum after the third period,and then remained at around 0.2%.There is asymmetric effect between road transportation energy consumption and its influence factors.Considering the interaction between supply and demand,the elasticity coefficient of the crude oil supply is estimated to be the best at ? ? ?,and the coefficient of elasticity of the oil supply should be estimated at a<0;the elasticity coefficient of the crude oil demand is estimated to be the best at ?=?,and the coefficient of elasticity of the oil demand should be estimated at a = 0;the elasticity coefficient of China's net imports and the dollar index are both estimated to be the best in the case of ? ? ?,should be estimated at a<0.