Analysis Of The Impact Of Commercial Banks' Interbank Business On Their Liquidity Risk

Under the trend of financial disintermediation and interest rate liberalization,China's banking industry is increasingly intensified.Commercial banks urgently need to find new profit opportunities through business innovation and enhance their competitiveness.In this context,the interbank business has been increasingly valued by commercial banks,and in recent years it has seen an explosive growth trend,from the initial short-term position adjustment tools evolved into an important profitable means for commercial banks.Its business forms are complex and diverse,and the scope of cooperation also extends from the initial silver-silver cooperation to Yinxin cooperation,bank-insurance cooperation,and silver-based cooperation.Commercial banks often use interbank business as a “shell” for financing purposes,thereby escaping credit constraints and regulatory restrictions,especially non-standard assets such as interbank deposit certificates and interbank wealth management that have been rapidly developed in recent years.Its profit model relies too much on maturity mismatch and leverage,which can easily trigger liquidity risks,especially as the industry chain extends to accelerating the contagion of liquidity risk.The “money shortage” in 2013 and the “asset shortage” in 2016 were largely the result of over-expansion in the banking industry.The deleveraging of interbank business became an important part of this process.Therefore,it is very important to study the conduction relationship between commercial interbank business and liquidity risk.This paper uses Industrial Bank as an example,and attempts to elaborate the relationship between interbank business and commercial bank liquidity risk from the perspective of case analysis.In the theoretical part,this paper analyzes the causes of development of interbank business and liquidity risk theory in light of previous literature and research,and focuses on the impact mechanism between the “money shortage” in 2013 and the “asset shortage” in 2016.further analysis.In the case analysis section,this paper gives a detailed description ofthe current status of the Industrial Bank's current interbank business and liquidity and reveals the current problems of the bank.In order to further examine the relationship between IB's interbank business and liquidity risk,this paper uses the liquidity ratio as a measure of liquidity risk,selects quarterly data for 2007-2017,constructs a VECM model to analyze the quantitative relationship among them,and finally adopts The pressure is to measure the liquidity risk that the Industrial Bank may be exposed to under extreme circumstances.The results of the case study show that:(1)Since the "shortage of money" in 2013,Industrial Bank has continued to recycle its purchases of resold-back financial assets,resulting in a gradual reduction in the proportion of interbank assets,while the proportion of liabilities in the same industry is almost one-third.The red line of supervision;(2)There is a long-term stable relationship between the interbank business of Industrial Bank and liquidity risk.The proportion of traditional interbank assets,the proportion of purchase-to-sale financial assets and the liquidity ratio are significantly negatively correlated.The proportion of traditional interbank liabilities and the proportion of repurchased repurchases is significantly positively correlated with the liquidity ratio,and the purchase of resale finance is significant.The relationship between the proportion of assets and liquidity risk is significantly greater than the proportion of traditional interbank assets.The relationship between the proportion of sold repurchased financial assets and liquidity risk is significantly greater than the proportion of traditional interbank liabilities;(3)Through stress tests,Industrial Bank The probability of liquidity risk arising from the mild and moderate impact of interbank business is small,but it is likely to trigger liquidity risk under heavy shocks.Based on the current status and model analysis of the current level of interbank business and liquidity of Industrial Bank,the paper gives specific recommendations at the end.