Study On The Choice Of RMB Exchange Rate Regime Under The Capital Account Gradual Opening

The choice of exchange rate regime has always been an important research hotspot in the international economic field.How can the choice of the exchange rate regime be affected by the irreversible capital account liberalization process on a global scale and has become a problem that can not be ignored at present.In recent years,with the international financial market volatility increased,the accumulation of financial risks,the process of globalization is repeated;these factors are calling for the transformation of global economic governance pattern.At present,China’s "one side of the way" strategy in depth,reform into the deep water period,the economy is facing greater downward pressure,which not only put forward a serious challenge to China,but also China’s further deepening the reform of the times opportunity.The central bank"811" exchange reform to adjust the RMB exchange rate central parity mechanism,making China’s exchange rate regime towards the market has taken an important step.This shows that China’s market-oriented implementation of the exchange rate determination.With the change of capital account opening,choosing the appropriate exchange rate regime to cope with the complicated economic environment is not only an important policy tool for developing international economic and trade in the context of supply side structure reform,but also to further improve the marketization of exchange rate and deepen the requirements of financial reform TheThe article first reviews the existing literature on the study of the two and their relations,and seeks the lessons of experience.Then,based on the theme of the article,this paper discusses the theoretical basis of the Mundell-Fleming model,the "ternary paradox" and the exchange rate regime decision theory,and discusses the opening degree and the exchange rate regime of capital items from the aspects of measurement methods,classification and influencing factors Defined.Reference to the different degrees of development of the country in the two modes of the practice of the practice,seeking international experience for reference.In order to make the research more suitable for our country and then play a guiding role for our country in the past three decades of economic phenomena in the mathematical analysis,select the exchange rate regime as the explanatory variables,capital account opening degree,financial market maturity,per capita economy Growth rate,current account surplus ratio as explanatory variables.Based on the test results and the obtained coefficients,it is judged that the future capital account opening affects the general trend of the choice of exchange rate regime.And then get the conclusion:With the liberalization of capital projects,it should continue to adjust the reform of the floating exchange rate regime;in the short term combined with China’s national conditions,should choose the intermediate exchange rate regime and gradually open the capital project to match.Finally,combined with the current policy of documenting the supply side of China’s reform,the process of financial marketization,the liberalization of financial liberalization and other major policy-oriented programmatic documents,the paper summarizes the research results,from deepening the reform of financial market,improving supervision and promoting interest rate marketization And other aspects of the proposed rationalization,operational policy recommendations.