Statistical Monitoring And Supervision Of China's Stock Price Manipulation

Since China's stock market has been established in1990,until now it still runs irregularly.The problems like that some listed companies misappropriate maliciously,publish fake information or sometimes lack of standardization,secret deals and share price manipulation have damaged the principle of faimess,openness and impartiality seriously,disrupted the normal order of the market and led to the phenomenon of stock prices soaring and tumbling occurring frequently.In fact,all non-standard behaviors are all for benefit and the only way is to buy and sell stocks in secondary market.Therefore,it makes special sense that enhance monitoring for the change of stock price and its transactions and publish illegal activities severely.Actually,the substance of share price manipulation is the price-fixing owing to market imperfections,and this price-fixing is the result of manipulators' resource advantages.In general,their advantages on resource are mainly financial advantages and information advantages.Based on this,this paper tries to analyze the stock price manipulation under the four monopoly modes of complete monopoly,oligopoly,monopoly competition and conspiracy based on the incomplete market theory on the basis of the systematic research on the related research results.After the discussion on the mode,means and basic characteristics of stock price manipulation,this paper puts forward the possible influencing factors of stock price manipulation,extracts important variables using the principal component analysis method and constructs the identification model of price manipulation in China by combining Logistic model.On this basis,the idea of game theory is further incorporated,and the game equilibrium between manipulator and supervisor is discussed.Simultaneously,we choose thirty stocks involved in the stock price manipulation case of the Chinese stock market from 2011 to 2016 which were identified by the Commission and another random thirty stocks as sample and use the daily trading data on empirical verification and testing for China's stock market price manipulation identification model.Finally,according to the problems existing in the empirical analysis,the relevant policy suggestions are put forward.The analysis results show that the fluctuation factor,the active risk factor and the income factor can be used as the discriminant factor of the stock price manipulation in China's stock market.The Logistic model constructed by these three factors as the explanatory variables can be used as the identification model of the stock market price manipulation.No matter how the behavior of operators changes,this statistical monitoring model constructed is effective.