Research On Ship Investment Decision Based On Real Options And Fuzzy Theory

With the rapid development of economy and trade,in order to meet the increasing demand for trading and transportation,how to expand the fleet size and invest in shipping rationally has become the key step and core content of the shipping enterprise for management and development.However.the complex investment environment of shipping has caused many difficulties in investment decision-making,and the traditional investment decision-making method can't meet the practical needs.Therefore,how to evaluate the value of ship investment projects,to ensure the coordinated development of ship investment projects and shipping enterprises,so as to promote the rapid development of shipping enterprises has become an important research topic.Firstly,this paper introduces the theory of investment decision-making and real option theory.Based on the limitations of the traditional investment decision-making method,the necessity of innovating decision-making method is put forward.From the characteristics of ship investment project and real option method.This paper discusses the applicability of using real option method to solve the problem of ship investment decision-making and introduces several option pricing methods which are common in ship investment,and points out the advantages and disadvantages of application.Secondly,the types of real options and the option strategies involved in shipping investment are expounded on this basis,the ship investment decision-making model based on real option theory is constructed.The trinomial tree model is used to improve the model precision,and the volatility of freight rate is predicted reasonably by GARCH.Then use a case analysis to compare the advantages of the model with the traditional option pricing method.Finally,on the basis of the established model,fuzzy theory is introduced to improve the model.Select trapezoidal fuzzy number and the improved triangular fuzzy number to explain the uncertainty of volatility of expected return cash flows and underlying asset value fluctuation,and the pricing model of compound option based on fuzzy theory is constructed.Making decision in the range of the asset value fluctuation,fully considering the flexibility and uncertainty of the option value in the process of ship investment,making the decision more efficiently and providing a different solution of uncertainty.