The Research On Value Evaluation Of Shipping Listed Companies Based On Free Cash Flow

The shipping industry,as an important part of the transportation industry,occupies an important position in the development of the world economy.For the cyclical industry of shipping companies,value assessment is of great significance to the implementation of internal strategy and the long-term development of shipping industry.Considering the relevant experience for the valuation of shipping enterprises,enriching the research on the valuation of shipping listed companies and helping the shipping enterprises to better understand the free cash flow,this paper introduces the theory of free cash flow and enterprise value of domestic shipping listed companies Analysis and empirical research.Based on the theoretical analysis of free cash flow and enterprise value evaluation,this paper constructs a two-stage free cash flow discount model which is in line with shipping listed companies and selects the annual financial report data of 10domestic shipping listed companies from 2011 to 2015 Sample data,the enterprise value of shipping listed companies to conduct an empirical assessment and analysis.The results show that for the shipping listed companies,the use of cash flow method for shipping listed companies to assess the value of the cyclical fluctuations in the characteristics of the shipping industry,and two-stage free cash flow discount model is most consistent.This paper sets 2016-2020 as the forecast period,forecasts the free cash flow of shipping companies from 2016 to 2020,and finds that the development of shipping enterprises after 2020 is in a stable period,and shipping listed companies will grow at a steady growth rate of 6%.Empirical results show that 10 shipping listed companies,the top three are COSCO Shipping,CSCL and China Merchants ship three companies,COSCO Shipping enterprises estimate the highest value.In the calculation of the enterprise's asset-liability ratio,the average value of asset-liability ratio of 10 shipping companies is about 0.6,which is in line with the overall situation of the overall asset-liability ratio of shipping enterprises.The proportion of debt costs to the weighted capital cost is more than the cost of equity capital The Based on this,the relevant suggestions given in this paper are the awareness of the shipping enterprises to enhance the cash flow management,pay sufficient attention to the free cash flow,optimize the capital structure of the shipping enterprise,and implement the dynamic optimization mechanism of the capital structure.