Asymmetric Phase Shifts Of Production Cycle In China's Manufacturing Industry And Its Causes

"One of the world's 100 thinkers" Vaclav Sail said in his book "made in America:the prosperity of the country why cannot achieve without manufacturing","if country do not have a strong and highly innovative manufacturing system,and the employment opportunity it creates,then,any one of the developed economies could not thrive." Manufacturing is a pillar industry of the national economy and an important embodiment of the country's creativity,competitiveness.and overall national strength.It not only provides material basis for modern industrial society,but also provides advanced equipment and technical platform for information and knowledge society.It is also the basis for realizing military transformation with Chinese characteristics and national defense security.At present stage,domestic labor costs rise and changes in the world economic situation,tight constraints of resources and environment,make the country industry transformation pressure upgrading,especially in manufacturing industry,some of China's manufacturing industry production and enterprise performance in recent years shows rapid decline trend,which makes the whole industry and the macro-economic growth rate also showing a clear downward.With China's macro-economic growth,saying goodbye to the two digit high growth pattern,and shift into the second high growth period,China's economic structure,especially in the industrial sector,the pace of internal structural adjustment is accelerating substantially.Whether the international marktet shrinking caused by the international financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis,or the rising of supply cost caused by the conditional change in domestic factor endowment,are caused China's industry economic fluctuation especially the economic fluctuation of manufacturing industry.Although the business cycle is inevitable in economic operation,but if the volatility is too intense,spread to too many sectors of the industry,Undoubtedly,it will bring great losses and harms to the overall efficiency and steady development of China's economy.Therefore,in-depth study of specific characteristics of business cycle of China's manufacturing industry,for our more comprehensive understanding of the manufacturing cycle of nature,so as to effectively monitor the operation,timely adjust the direction of macroeconomic policy to ensure stable and healthy development of China's manufacturing industry,has important significance.Previous academic research on the economic cycle asymmetry is mostly concentrated in the economic cycle showed in the duration of expansion and contraction and the peaks and troughs on the magnitude of the turning point,and section distribution characteristics get less attention.Moreover,the existing research on business cycle comovement is mainly focused on macroeconomic variables,regional comovement and transnational comovement,and less attention has been paid to the research on the economic cycle comovement among manufacturing industries.In this paper,use China's manufacturing industry as the research object,reference Chang,Y.,&Hwang,S.2015 method,based on the characteristics of asymmetry and comovement in the process of economic cycle fluctuation,this paper makes a systematic and deep research on the characteristics and causes of cycle fluctuation in China's manufacturing industry.First of all,this article is based on the main business income data of China'sindustrial sector and 30 manufacturing industries,BB method is adopted to determine the turning point of the cycle fluctuation in the whole industry sector and industry,on this basis,the average expansion period and contraction period of the cycle fluctuation in the industrial and manufacturing sectors are calculated.Reseach of the industry average expansion and contraction found on average point of view,China's manufacturing industry cycle expansion period is longer than the contraction period,about 1.4 times,and for the whole industrial cycle,expansion period is shorter than the contraction period,The expansion period is1.66 times of the contraction period.Secondly,this paper further concern the distribution features of the industry cycle peaks and troughs,found near the turning point of China's manufacturing industry peak and trough mostly concentrated in China's industrial cycle turning point,confirmed that comovement is the typical characteristic of China's manufacturing industry cycle.However,China's manufacturing industry distribution cycle turning point exists asymmetry potential:trough(upturns)are more concentrated than the peak(downturns).There is a time lag in the distribution of manufacturing industry turning point relative to industrial cycle,The average lag time of manufacturing trough is 0.97 months,and the average lag time of peak distribution is 0.65 months.In addition,in order to research the origin of China's manufacturing industry cycle phase transfer consistency,this paper constructs a pane logit model to description the characteristics of China's manufacturing industry peaks and troughs distribution,empirical analysis how the spillover effect based on input and output linked,the monetary policy shock,fiscal spending shocks and oil price affect the distribution of the manufacturing industry peaks and troughs.The results show that,in the short term,China's manufacturing industry has entered a recession,mostly affected by upstream spillover,while the manufacturing industry began to recover,it is mostly affected by downstream spillover.In the short term,the impact of monetary policy on the peaks of China's manufacturing industry cycle is significant,but there is uncertainty in the trough.In the short term,China's fiscal expenditure has no significant impact on the peak of the manufacturing industry cycle,but has a significant impact in the trough.The short-term effect of oil prices in the peaks and troughs are significant,and the absolute value of the coefficient is almost equal,indicating that the oil price changes is the source of industry manufacturing comovement,while the oil price on the manufacturing industry comovement effect in the peaks and troughs did not exhibit asymmetry.The spillover effects,monetary policy and fiscal expenditure has the asymmetric effects on China's manufacturing industry fluctuation cycle,these factors may be cause the asymmetry distribution of China's manufacturing industry cycle turning points.