The Mpact Of Uncertainty Shocks On China S Macroeconomic Operation

The financial crisis and other major emergencies have increased the uncertainty of the market,and have had a negative impact on the macroeconomic operation.Economic uncertainty will reduce the aggregate demand and increase the unemployment rate in the macroeconomic operation(Leduc and Liu(2012)).Since 2016,the implementation of the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States,Britain and the European Monetary strategy and European banking crisis,geopolitical political upheavals and uncertainty under the impact of the world financial market volatility,the world is still uncertain.In November 2016,Xi Jinping at the APEC summit pointed out that "the global economic recovery is still weak,the power of economic growth is not enough,economic globalization suffered setbacks,trade and investment downturn,global challenges exacerbated the uncertainty of world economy."In recent years,the impact of the fluctuation of uncertain effect has attracted attention in international academic circles.Bloom(2009),Fern ndez-Villaverde et al.(2011a),Bloom et al.(2012)found that increased uncertainty will make employment,investment and output will be reduced,resulting in the reallocation of capital efficiency,productivity decline.However,most of the studies are aimed at developing countries in Europe and the United States,and did not specifically model the economic characteristics of developing countries such as china.Bloom(2013)argues that the macroeconomic impact of uncertainty shocks is greater than that of developed countries because of the volatility of the developing countries in the international division of labor and the instability of the policy of reform.Carri re-Swallow and C spedes(2013)compared with that of developed countries,emerging economies affected by exogenous uncertainty shocks,investment and consumption decreased to a greater degree and need longer time to recover,nor the formation of subsequent excessive economic rebound.At present,China is at a crucial stage of comprehensive deepening reform,structural problems in the economy is prominent,the imbalance of industrial structure,contradiction serious excess capacity accumulation,financial market risk has become dominant,the macro-control strategy decreased marginal effect,economic downward pressure on the larger factors for economic development in China has increased the risk of the economy.The impact of uncertainty influence to China's macro economy?Quantifying the impact of uncertainty shocks on China's macroeconomic operation is not only of important theoretical value,but also of policy reference significance.The mainstream approach in the world is introducing uncertain shocks into the DSGE model to study the impact of uncertain shocks on macroeconomic performance.Because of the impact of non homogeneity in the DSGE model,the theory and algorithm of solving the difficulty bigger.This paper also adopts this method to introduce uncertain shocks into the DSGE model.Based on China's economic modeling and parameter calibration,the impact of uncertain shocks on China's macroeconomic operation is studied.In this paper,we do some innovative research work in the following aspects:firstly,we study the DSGE model with three kinds of uncertainty shocks.The real economic cycle model is established,and three different technologies are introduced to analyze the impact of uncertain shocks on the economy.Second,studied at different prices under conditions of uncertainty,the impact on macro economic variables.This paper constructs a DSGE model with uncertain technological shocks,and analyzes the impact of uncertain shocks under the assumptions of price elasticity and price stickiness.Third,the study contains uncertain parameters of DSGE impact model.With endogenous capital elasticity as an example,the building contains capital elasticity of uncertain DSGE model of impact,respectively.The Markoff transfer mechanism model and stochastic volatility model two uncertainty measurement methods are introduced in the model,a comparative analysis of different price measure conditions,not the same method,the impact of capital elasticity Uncertainty Impact on China's economy the development.By combining the actual conditions China,establish model,this paper analysis,the following conclusions can be drawn.First,stochastic volatility shocks and Markov mechanism shift volatility shocks make the economy produce contractionary effects.The effect of GARCH impact on macro economy has "enlarged" role,but in the GARCH model,the level of exogenous shocks impact and uncertainty shocks are synchronized,the effects of uncertainty shocks volatility cannot be identified separately,so the study under the framework of DSGE model,generally do not use the GARCH method to study uncertainty.Second,the impact of uncertain shocks on economic variables(such as output and investment)is greater than that of price stickiness under price elasticity.For the uncertainty of technology,price stickiness hypothesis and price elasticity under the assumption that the uncertain impact on macro economy is consistent in magnitude,and the price elasticity under the uncertain impact on output and investment effect is greater than the corresponding to the price stickiness.Third,when China's economy suffered the impact of uncertain parameters,the main economic variables will be negative to the mobile.For the uncertain impact of capital elasticity,whether under the price stickiness or price elasticity,or considering different uncertainty measures,the impact of uncertainty will lead to the decline of output and consumption in the short term.This conclusion is consistent with most of the existing results in the literature.