Study On The Risk Evaluation And Monitoring Of P2P Platform In Zhe Jiang Province Based On Catastrophe Progression Method

Peer-to-Peer Lending,is the financial intermediary service realizing the financing,also is a third-party platform for meeting people's borrowing needs.It has many advantages,for example,convenience,fast financing,which ease the plight of borrower's loan in China,and promote a more equitable distribution of social capital.It is one of important practice forms in China's inclusive financial system.Although the development of P2 P lending market demand is an inevitable trend,many platforms are problematic.Therefore,for supervision department,and investors,establishing a reasonable mechanism for effective risk assessment and monitoring becomes crucial.This paper will provide them with references.In recent years,the relevant laws and regulations are frequent issued and the regulatory authorities inspected in place.The P2 P platform even experienced a major reshuffle in2016.Financial institutions across the country classified P2 P platforms,and the platforms that did not comply with the relevant laws and regulations were banned or rectified within a time limit.The P2 P industry is gradually on the right track.Under this background,this paper firstly analyzes the current situation of P2 P industry in China and the status of platform information disclosure and rating,and finds that the number of industry platforms and the total volume of transactions are generally on the rise.The market holds a positive attitude towards the development of P2 P platforms while the information disclosure of platforms is not comprehensive,incomplete,there is also no one standard which is relatively uniform for the disclosure platform.By analyzing the related cases of Zhejiang Province's problem platform,it is found that the characteristics of the risk evolution of the platform are similar to those of sudden phenomenon and multi-modal etc.of catastrophic phenomenon.Therefore,the risk of P2 P platform will be comprehensive assessed by using the catastrophe progression method.In this paper,we selected 197 P2 P trading platforms in Beijing,Shanghai& Guangzhou and Jiangsu and Zhejiang Provinces as their research objects,which have been operated more than one year and related indicators are complete.The time span covers from July 2016 to June 2017,risk assessment is made for the platform.On the basis of reading the relevant literature and assessing the current status,this paper constructs the index system of comprehensive assessment,and uses the analytic hierarchy process to rank the importance of indicators at all levels.Secondly,the consistency of the ranking results will be verified.After cleaning and unifying the data,the data are standardized and then the corresponding Catastrophe Progression Models are selected according to the basic types of Catastrophe Progression Method.Thirdly,the risk values of each platform are obtained by using the normalized formula.By comparing the risk value of P2 P platform between Zhejiang Province and other four provinces,it is found that the comprehensive risk index value of P2 P platform in Zhejiang province is basically the same as the average level of the five provinces,but the composite risk of platform which ranked No.1 is higher than that of other provinces.Liquidity risk and operational risk is relatively higher;the average loan and borrowers' quantity / investors' quantity,these two indicators of risk are relatively higher;comprehensive risk perspective,the ones with better performance are listed companies' platform,followed by state-owned equities' Platform,then venture capital's platform,and finally private companies' platform.According to the empirical results,regulatory suggestions are made as followers: establishing the comprehensive risk assessment of P2 P platform,dynamically monitoring the liquidity of platform funds,improving the information disclosure mechanism and enriching the platform background of shareholders.